FC Kharkiv vs Desna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Kharkiv vs Desna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Kharkiv and Desna meet at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
FC Kharkiv (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 4L across 8 games at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Desna's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Desna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Desna's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 4L across 9 road games this term (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for FC Kharkiv against 0.90 for Desna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Kharkiv lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with FC Kharkiv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Kharkiv — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Desna — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 39% versus Desna 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 44% | Desna 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.29 xG and Desna 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.965 / defence 1.265 | Desna attack 0.801 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.222. Desna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing FC Kharkiv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 FC Kharkiv games / 18 Desna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 38% | Draw 27% | Desna 35%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Desna 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Kharkiv as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Kharkiv 50% | Desna 44%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Desna | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 38% | Draw 27% | Desna 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.29 / Desna 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.965 / def 1.265 | Desna attack 0.801 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Desna xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Desna kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Desna kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Desna being played?
The match is being played at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Desna part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Desna is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Desna?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 38% chance of winning, Desna a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Desna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Desna will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Desna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Desna?
Record (1 meetings): FC Kharkiv 1W | Draws 0 | Desna 0W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Desna in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Desna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Kharkiv's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Desna's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Desna's attack (0.80x) against FC Kharkiv's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
38%
2.65
27%
3.72
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.52
1.24
Desna xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
11%
9.14
10%
10.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Desna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Desna expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.24 for Desna, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Desna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, FC Kharkiv have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 6W 1D 11L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Desna's form line: 7W 4D 7L from 18 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Desna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for FC Kharkiv against 1.39 for Desna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Kharkiv have posted 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (4W 0D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — FC Kharkiv are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Desna have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Kharkiv are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Desna are on 1.22 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Desna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Desna in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 1D 11L in their last 18 games (1.06 PPG), while Desna have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Desna away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.50 PPG; Desna away: 1.00 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Desna been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Desna in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
1
FC Kharkiv
0
Draws
0
Desna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Desna?
From 1 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 1, Desna have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Desna last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2021, when Desna 1-2 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Desna?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Desna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 50%, Desna 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (FC Kharkiv) and 50% (Desna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Desna in 38%; Desna in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Desna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Desna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 38% of Desna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Desna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of FC Kharkiv's matches and 50% of Desna's.
Do FC Kharkiv and Desna tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Desna in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Kharkiv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist, Regular Season - 24, as FC Kharkiv and Desna drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.29 xG and Desna 1.24 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Kharkiv fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Desna landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.96 / defence 1.26 against Desna attack 0.80 / defence 1.21, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 38% | Draw 27% | Desna 35%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 44%, Desna 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Desna's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Kharkiv 1.06 PPG, Desna 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Desna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.