Lviv 2-2 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Lviv at 41%, yet in-form Kryvbas KR provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lviv vs Kryvbas KR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Lviv host Kryvbas KR at Stadion SKIF in Premier League (matchday 18). Kick-off is Saturday 18 March 2023 at 12:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Lviv — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Lviv's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Kryvbas KR stand at 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 away fixtures (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.88 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Kryvbas KR — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Lviv have won 0, Kryvbas KR 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 4 Sep 2022, ended Lviv 0–0 Kryvbas KR — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Lviv trading profile (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

Kryvbas KR trading profile (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lviv 41% versus Kryvbas KR 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lviv 35% | Kryvbas KR 35%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 1.24 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.922 / defence 0.970 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.761 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.389. Kryvbas KR's attack rating of 0.761 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Lviv's last 34 games and Kryvbas KR's last 17.

Result probabilities: Lviv 41% | Draw 28% | Kryvbas KR 31%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 2.44 | Draw 3.51 | Kryvbas KR 3.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Lviv are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kryvbas KR (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lviv 60% (last 10 home games) | Kryvbas KR 38% (last 8 away games).

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