Livyi Bereh 1-1 Polessya – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Polessya at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Livyi Bereh vs Polessya encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Livyi Bereh and Polessya meet at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Premier League (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time.

Form

Livyi Bereh (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Livyi Bereh's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Polessya have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling, Polessya have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Polessya are 0.50 PPG clear of Livyi Bereh over their recent games (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2024, ended Livyi Bereh 0–0 Polessya — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Livyi Bereh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 27 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 63% of games.

Polessya goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 27 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Livyi Bereh 18% versus Polessya 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Livyi Bereh 22% | Polessya 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 0.82 xG and Polessya 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.708 / defence 1.145 | Polessya attack 1.030 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.002. Livyi Bereh's attack rating of 0.708 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Data: built from Livyi Bereh's last 23 games and Polessya's last 54.

Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 26% | Draw 30% | Polessya 44%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 3.89 | Draw 3.32 | Polessya 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Polessya are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Polessya if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Livyi Bereh's last 10 home games and Polessya's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Livyi Bereh 20% (last 10 home games) | Polessya 50% (last 10 away games).

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