Kolos Kovalivka 1-0 Kudrivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kolos Kovalivka at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kolos Kovalivka vs Kudrivka encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kudrivka make the trip to Kolos Stadium to face Kolos Kovalivka in Premier League (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Friday 8 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Kolos Kovalivka have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Kolos Kovalivka have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kudrivka (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Kudrivka have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Kolos Kovalivka's favour (1.80 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Kolos Kovalivka, 0 for Kudrivka and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 7 Nov 2025, ended Kolos Kovalivka 3–1 Kudrivka — a Kolos Kovalivka win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Kolos Kovalivka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Kudrivka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kolos Kovalivka 43% versus Kudrivka 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kolos Kovalivka 29% | Kudrivka 50%). Note also that Kudrivka surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Kolos Kovalivka recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 75% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kolos Kovalivka 1.15 xG and Kudrivka 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.834 / defence 0.683 | Kudrivka attack 0.676 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.251. Kudrivka's attack rating of 0.676 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.58. Kolos Kovalivka have a tight defence (rating 0.683), which is pulling Kudrivka's projected output down. Data: built from Kolos Kovalivka's last 56 games and Kudrivka's last 26.
Result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 49% | Draw 32% | Kudrivka 18%. Fair-value odds: Kolos Kovalivka 2.03 | Draw 3.09 | Kudrivka 5.47. Kolos Kovalivka hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS Yes probability 30% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Kudrivka's lower xG of 0.58 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kolos Kovalivka at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kolos Kovalivka if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.73 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kolos Kovalivka's last 10 home games and Kudrivka's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kolos Kovalivka 30% (last 10 home games) | Kudrivka 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kolos Kovalivka vs Kudrivka | Competition: Premier League, matchday 27 | Venue: Kolos Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 8 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 49% | Draw 32% | Kudrivka 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% (Under 75%) | BTTS Yes 30% (No 70%) | xG Kolos Kovalivka 1.15 / Kudrivka 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.834 / def 0.683 | Kudrivka attack 0.676 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Kolos Kovalivka (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Kudrivka xG
30%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Kudrivka FAQs
What time does Kolos Kovalivka vs Kudrivka kick off?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Kudrivka kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Friday 8 May 2026 at Kolos Stadium.
What was the final score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Kudrivka?
Kolos Kovalivka 1 - 0 Kudrivka.
Where is Kolos Kovalivka vs Kudrivka being played?
The match is being played at Kolos Stadium.
What competition is Kolos Kovalivka vs Kudrivka part of?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Kudrivka is a Premier League fixture (matchday 27) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kolos Kovalivka vs Kudrivka?
Our statistical model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 49% chance of winning, Kudrivka a 18% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Kolos Kovalivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Kudrivka?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Kolos Kovalivka and Kudrivka will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (70%).
Will Kolos Kovalivka vs Kudrivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (75%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kolos Kovalivka's attack rating (0.83) and Kudrivka's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kudrivka's attack (0.68x) against Kolos Kovalivka's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 0.58.
These ratings are built from Kolos Kovalivka's last 56 games and Kudrivka's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.9%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kolos Kovalivka Win
49%
2.03
32%
3.09
18%
5.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.8%
Draw
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Total xG
1.73
0.58
Kudrivka xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
5.47
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.31
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
56%
1.78
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
28%
3.61
6%
17.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.8 | 10.3 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.4 | 11.8 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Kudrivka Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kolos Kovalivka vs Kudrivka?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.4%.
How many goals are Kolos Kovalivka and Kudrivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 0.58 for Kudrivka, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Kolos Kovalivka vs Kudrivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kolos Kovalivka come into this having played 28 games, going 12W 11D 5L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Kudrivka sit at 0.89 PPG from 28 outings (6W 7D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Kolos Kovalivka carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Kudrivka — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Kolos Kovalivka's home form reads 6W 6D 2L across their last 14 home games, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Kudrivka have taken 0.64 points per game from their last 14 away games (2W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kolos Kovalivka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Kudrivka are on 1.04 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kudrivka in 61%.
Defensively: Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Kudrivka
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka (Home) vs Kudrivka (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Kudrivka
Blended
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Kudrivka Form FAQs
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Kudrivka in coming into this match?
Kolos Kovalivka have gone 12W 11D 5L in their last 28 games (1.68 PPG), while Kudrivka have gone 6W 7D 15L in their last 28 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kolos Kovalivka at home or Kudrivka away?
Kolos Kovalivka's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kolos Kovalivka at home: 1.71 PPG; Kudrivka away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Kolos Kovalivka or Kudrivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Kudrivka in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Kolos Kovalivka and Kudrivka, the earliest from November 2025. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Kolos Kovalivka have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Kolos Kovalivka
0
Draws
0
Kudrivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Kudrivka H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Kudrivka?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Kolos Kovalivka have won 3, Kudrivka have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kolos Kovalivka and Kudrivka last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Kudrivka 2-3 Kolos Kovalivka.
Who has won more matches between Kolos Kovalivka and Kudrivka?
Kolos Kovalivka have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kolos Kovalivka 43%, Kudrivka 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Kolos Kovalivka and 29% for Kudrivka.
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Kolos Kovalivka have failed to score in 36% of games; Kudrivka in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kolos Kovalivka home games / Kudrivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Kudrivka Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kolos Kovalivka and Kudrivka matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 43% of Kudrivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kolos Kovalivka and Kudrivka matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent games and 29% of Kudrivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kolos Kovalivka and Kudrivka matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 71% of Kudrivka's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kolos Kovalivka edge out Kudrivka 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kolos Kovalivka beat Kudrivka 1-0 at Kolos Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 1.15 xG and Kudrivka 0.58 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.83 / defence 0.68 against Kudrivka attack 0.68 / defence 1.08, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 49% | Draw 32% | Kudrivka 18%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 29%, Kudrivka 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kudrivka's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Kolos Kovalivka arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.