Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dnipro-1 make the trip to Obolon' Arena to face Kolos Kovalivka in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Kolos Kovalivka (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kolos Kovalivka at Obolon' Arena this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Dnipro-1 have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dnipro-1 have gone 5W 1D 3L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.78 PPG). Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.78 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Dnipro-1 are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kolos Kovalivka lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Dnipro-1 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Kolos Kovalivka — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Dnipro-1 — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kolos Kovalivka 33% versus Dnipro-1 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kolos Kovalivka 28% | Dnipro-1 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kolos Kovalivka 1.04 xG and Dnipro-1 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.890 / defence 1.164 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.888 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.223. Data: 18 Kolos Kovalivka games / 18 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 31% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 41%. Fair-value odds: Kolos Kovalivka 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Dnipro-1 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dnipro-1 at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Kolos Kovalivka 50% | Dnipro-1 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Obolon' Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 31% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Kolos Kovalivka 1.04 / Dnipro-1 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.890 / def 1.164 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.888 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Dnipro-1 xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Obolon' Arena.
Where is Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Obolon' Arena.
What competition is Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 31% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Kolos Kovalivka and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Dnipro-1?
Record (1 meetings): Kolos Kovalivka 0W | Draws 0 | Dnipro-1 1W.
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Dnipro-1 in?
Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kolos Kovalivka's attack rating (0.89) and Dnipro-1's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dnipro-1's attack (0.89x) against Kolos Kovalivka's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
31%
3.27
28%
3.56
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Total xG
2.31
1.26
Dnipro-1 xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
9%
11.58
15%
6.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Kolos Kovalivka and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 1.26 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kolos Kovalivka's recent record stands at 7W 3D 8L from 18 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dnipro-1, meanwhile, have gone 13W 1D 4L across 18 games — 2.22 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kolos Kovalivka heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kolos Kovalivka have managed 3W 1D 5L from 9 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dnipro-1's away record stands at 5W 1D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.78 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dnipro-1's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.94 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Kolos Kovalivka have gone 7W 3D 8L in their last 18 games (1.33 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 13W 1D 4L in their last 18 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kolos Kovalivka at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kolos Kovalivka at home: 1.11 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Kolos Kovalivka or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dnipro-1 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Kolos Kovalivka
1
Draws
4
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Dnipro-1?
From 5 meetings on record, Kolos Kovalivka have won 0, Dnipro-1 have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kolos Kovalivka and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2024, when Kolos Kovalivka 0-2 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Kolos Kovalivka and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kolos Kovalivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kolos Kovalivka 56%, Dnipro-1 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Kolos Kovalivka) and 56% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 in 44%; Kolos Kovalivka have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kolos Kovalivka home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kolos Kovalivka play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 33% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kolos Kovalivka vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent games and 56% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kolos Kovalivka and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Kolos Kovalivka have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kolos Kovalivka's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Obolon' Arena, Regular Season - 26, as Kolos Kovalivka and Dnipro-1 drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 1.04 xG and Dnipro-1 1.26 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kolos Kovalivka fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Dnipro-1 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.89 / defence 1.16 against Dnipro-1 attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 31% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 41%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 28%, Dnipro-1 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.