Inhulets 1-0 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inhulets at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Inhulets welcome Ruh Lviv to Stadion Inhulets. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 19 April 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Inhulets have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inhulets's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Stadion Inhulets this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Ruh Lviv — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Inhulets carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Inhulets in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 49% versus Ruh Lviv 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 49% | Ruh Lviv 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 1.25 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.879 / defence 1.017 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.807 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.211. Data: 37 Inhulets games / 37 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 42% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 29%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Ruh Lviv 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inhulets at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inhulets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Inhulets 50% | Ruh Lviv 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Inhulets • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Apr 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 42% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Inhulets 1.25 / Ruh Lviv 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.879 / def 1.017 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.807 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Inhulets (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Ruh Lviv xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 19 April 2023 at Stadion Inhulets.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv?
Inhulets 1 - 0 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Inhulets.
What competition is Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 42% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Inhulets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Inhulets and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Ruh Lviv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Inhulets and Ruh Lviv in?
Inhulets (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Inhulets's attack rating (0.88) and Ruh Lviv's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Inhulets's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inhulets Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.52
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Inhulets xG
Total xG
2.25
0.99
Ruh Lviv xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
8%
11.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Inhulets and 0.99 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Inhulets have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 9W 8D 20L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv's form line: 8W 13D 16L from 37 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Inhulets on 0.95 PPG, Ruh Lviv on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Inhulets have posted 1.11 PPG from 18 outings (6W 2D 10L).
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 4D 11L from 18 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Inhulets are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.97 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 9W 8D 20L in their last 37 games (0.95 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 8W 13D 16L in their last 37 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Inhulets's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 1.11 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ruh Lviv have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2024, when Ruh Lviv won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inhulets's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Inhulets
0
Draws
3
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Ruh Lviv?
From 4 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 1, Ruh Lviv have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Inhulets 0-1 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and Ruh Lviv?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inhulets 44%, Ruh Lviv 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Inhulets) and 39% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Inhulets have failed to score in 33% of games; Ruh Lviv in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Inhulets's recent matches and 44% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Inhulets's recent games and 39% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Inhulets edge out Ruh Lviv 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inhulets beat Ruh Lviv 1-0 at Stadion Inhulets, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 1.25 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.99 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ruh Lviv landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.88 / defence 1.02 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.81 / defence 1.16, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 42% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 29%, with Inhulets to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 49%, Ruh Lviv 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Inhulets 0.95 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inhulets win broke the near-deadlock. Inhulets (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.