Kryvbas KR 2-1 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inhulets at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kryvbas KR and Inhulets meet at NSK Olimpijs'kyj in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Monday 24 October 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kryvbas KR's overall Premier League record this term: 0W 3D 4L from 7 games (0.43 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.29 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 14% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Kryvbas KR have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kryvbas KR's home record at NSK Olimpijs'kyj: 0W 2D 1L from 3 Premier League appearances (0.67 PPG). 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
Inhulets (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Inhulets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Inhulets away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.43 for Kryvbas KR, 0.70 for Inhulets — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Kryvbas KR — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games; they fail to score in 86% of games.
Inhulets — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 14% versus Inhulets 71%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kryvbas KR 14% | Inhulets 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 0.65 xG and Inhulets 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 0.586 / defence 0.863 | Inhulets attack 0.931 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.245. Kryvbas KR's attack strength of 0.586 is below the league average — the 0.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Kryvbas KR games / 24 Inhulets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 23% | Draw 34% | Inhulets 43%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 4.35 | Draw 2.94 | Inhulets 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.65. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.65 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Kryvbas KR's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inhulets are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inhulets if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 30% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kryvbas KR 0% | Inhulets 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: NSK Olimpijs'kyj • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 23% | Draw 34% | Inhulets 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 30% | xG Kryvbas KR 0.65 / Inhulets 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 0.586 / def 0.863 | Inhulets attack 0.931 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Inhulets (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Inhulets xG
30%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets kicked off at 11:00 on Monday 24 October 2022 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets?
Kryvbas KR 2 - 1 Inhulets.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 23% chance of winning, Inhulets a 43% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Inhulets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Inhulets?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Inhulets in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 0W-3D-4L in 7 | 0.43 PPG | GF 0.29 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Inhulets (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kryvbas KR's attacking strength (0.59x league average) is weighed against Inhulets's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.65. Flip it around — Inhulets's attack (0.93x) against Kryvbas KR's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 7/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.6%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inhulets Win
23%
4.32
34%
2.95
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
19.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
1.65
1.00
Inhulets xG
4.32
23%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.32
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
52%
1.91
Win to Nil
9%
11.75
23%
4.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 9.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.9%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 1.00 for Inhulets, a combined total of 1.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kryvbas KR come into this having played 7 games, going 0W 3D 4L for 0.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Inhulets sit at 0.57 PPG from 7 outings (0W 4D 3L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Inhulets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.43 PPG for Kryvbas KR against 0.57 for Inhulets. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Kryvbas KR's home form reads 0W 2D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Inhulets have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 3D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 0.57 PPG overall record — Inhulets travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kryvbas KR are averaging 0.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 0.86 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kryvbas KR have seen both teams score in 14% of their recent games; Inhulets in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
Inhulets
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Inhulets in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 0W 3D 4L in their last 7 games (0.43 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 0W 4D 3L in their last 7 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Inhulets away?
Inhulets's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 0.67 PPG; Inhulets away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kryvbas KR have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Inhulets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Kryvbas KR
2
Draws
1
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Inhulets?
From 4 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 1, Inhulets have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Inhulets 2-0 Kryvbas KR.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Kryvbas KR) and 67% (Inhulets) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Kryvbas KR and 33% for Inhulets.
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Inhulets in 33%; Kryvbas KR have failed to score in 100% of games; Inhulets in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Inhulets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 67% of Inhulets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Inhulets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 33% of Inhulets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Inhulets tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Inhulets in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kryvbas KR defy the odds to beat Inhulets 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Inhulets 2-1 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 0.65 xG and Inhulets 1.00 xG, a combined 1.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Kryvbas KR beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 0.59 / defence 0.86 against Inhulets attack 0.93 / defence 0.93, drawn from 7/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 23% | Draw 34% | Inhulets 43%, with Inhulets to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Kryvbas KR win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 14%, Inhulets 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did.
Inhulets's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kryvbas KR 0.43 PPG, Inhulets 0.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kryvbas KR win broke the near-deadlock. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Inhulets (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.