FC Mariupol 2-3 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Mariupol at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Mariupol face Chornomorets.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Mariupol host Chornomorets at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka in Premier League (matchday 4). Kick-off is Monday 16 August 2021 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 3 games, FC Mariupol have gone 0W 1D 2L — a 0.33 PPG return. Last five: D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Chornomorets — last 3 games: 0W 0D 3L — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.33 PPG (FC Mariupol) versus 0.00 (Chornomorets). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
FC Mariupol trading profile (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Chornomorets trading profile (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Mariupol 100% and Chornomorets 33% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Mariupol 67% | Chornomorets 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Mariupol 1.52 xG and Chornomorets 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Mariupol attack 0.914 / defence 1.248 | Chornomorets attack 0.840 / defence 1.477. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.210. Chornomorets's defence rating of 1.477 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Mariupol's projected output up. FC Mariupol's defence rating of 1.248 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chornomorets's projected output up. Data: built from FC Mariupol's last 3 games and Chornomorets's last 3.
Result probabilities: FC Mariupol 40% | Draw 32% | Chornomorets 28%. Fair-value odds: FC Mariupol 2.52 | Draw 3.10 | Chornomorets 3.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.52 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Mariupol as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Mariupol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Mariupol's last 3 games and Chornomorets's last 3 games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Mariupol 100% (last 3 games) | Chornomorets 33% (last 3 games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Mariupol vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, matchday 4 | Venue: Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka • Kick-off: Monday 16 August 2021 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Mariupol 40% | Draw 32% | Chornomorets 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG FC Mariupol 1.52 / Chornomorets 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: FC Mariupol attack 0.914 / def 1.248 | Chornomorets attack 0.840 / def 1.477 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: FC Mariupol (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
FC Mariupol xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Chornomorets xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Mariupol vs Chornomorets FAQs
What time does FC Mariupol vs Chornomorets kick off?
FC Mariupol vs Chornomorets kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Monday 16 August 2021 at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka.
What was the final score in FC Mariupol vs Chornomorets?
FC Mariupol 2 - 3 Chornomorets.
Where is FC Mariupol vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka.
What competition is FC Mariupol vs Chornomorets part of?
FC Mariupol vs Chornomorets is a Premier League fixture (matchday 4) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Mariupol vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives FC Mariupol a 40% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FC Mariupol the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Mariupol vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Mariupol and Chornomorets will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Mariupol vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Mariupol's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Chornomorets's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Chornomorets's attack versus FC Mariupol's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Mariupol's last 3 games and Chornomorets's last 3 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Mariupol Win
40%
2.52
32%
3.10
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
FC Mariupol xG
Total xG
2.79
1.27
Chornomorets xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
11%
8.98
6%
16.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Mariupol vs Chornomorets Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Mariupol vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FC Mariupol and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for FC Mariupol and 1.27 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Mariupol vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Mariupol's recent record stands at 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, a 0.33 PPG return, with D-L-L in the last five.
Chornomorets, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 3L across 3 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Mariupol on 0.33 PPG, Chornomorets on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Mariupol are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 0.67 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Mariupol have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Mariupol
Early Season
Chornomorets
Early Season
FC Mariupol (Home) vs Chornomorets (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Mariupol
Early Season
Chornomorets
Early Season
❓ FC Mariupol vs Chornomorets Form FAQs
What form are FC Mariupol and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
FC Mariupol have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 1 H2H match we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 16 August 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
FC Mariupol
0
Draws
1
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Mariupol vs Chornomorets H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Mariupol and Chornomorets?
Across the 1 head-to-head match in our data, FC Mariupol have won 0, Chornomorets have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Mariupol and Chornomorets last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2021: FC Mariupol 2-3 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between FC Mariupol and Chornomorets?
Chornomorets have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 1 head-to-head match in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Mariupol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Mariupol at 100%, Chornomorets at 33%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Mariupol and 100% for Chornomorets. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chornomorets in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Mariupol home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Mariupol vs Chornomorets Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Mariupol and Chornomorets matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FC Mariupol's games and 33% of Chornomorets's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Mariupol and Chornomorets matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Mariupol's matches and 100% of Chornomorets's.
Do FC Mariupol and Chornomorets matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of FC Mariupol's recent matches and 67% of Chornomorets's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chornomorets defy the odds to beat FC Mariupol 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets beat FC Mariupol 2-3 at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Mariupol 1.52 xG and Chornomorets 1.27 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Chornomorets outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Mariupol attack 0.91 / defence 1.25 against Chornomorets attack 0.84 / defence 1.48, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Mariupol 40% | Draw 32% | Chornomorets 28%, with FC Mariupol to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Chornomorets win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Mariupol 67%, Chornomorets 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Mariupol's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Chornomorets's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Mariupol 0.33 PPG, Chornomorets 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chornomorets win broke the near-deadlock. FC Mariupol scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chornomorets scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.