Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-2 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Obolon'-Brovar at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Obolon'-Brovar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Obolon'-Brovar meet at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 November 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home record at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion: 0W 1D 5L from 6 Premier League appearances (0.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.17 lags behind their overall 0.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion this season.
Obolon'-Brovar have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Obolon'-Brovar's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi against 1.20 for Obolon'-Brovar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Obolon'-Brovar half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 58% versus Obolon'-Brovar 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 58% | Obolon'-Brovar 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.17 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.135 / defence 1.682 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.770 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.268. Data: 11 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 41 Obolon'-Brovar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 27% | Draw 25% | Obolon'-Brovar 48%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Obolon'-Brovar 2.08. Obolon'-Brovar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Obolon'-Brovar are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Obolon'-Brovar if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 83% | Obolon'-Brovar 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Ternopilsky Misky Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 7 Nov 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 27% | Draw 25% | Obolon'-Brovar 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.17 / Obolon'-Brovar 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.135 / def 1.682 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.770 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Obolon'-Brovar (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Obolon'-Brovar xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 7 November 2025 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What was the final score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1 - 2 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What competition is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 27% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Obolon'-Brovar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Obolon'-Brovar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Obolon'-Brovar in?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack at 1.14x the league average against Obolon'-Brovar's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Obolon'-Brovar's attack (0.77x) against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence (1.68x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Obolon'-Brovar Win
27%
3.75
25%
3.94
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Total xG
2.81
1.64
Obolon'-Brovar xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
19%
5.17
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
5%
19.37
15%
6.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 1.64 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 3W 1D 8L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Obolon'-Brovar's form line: 4W 4D 4L from 12 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Obolon'-Brovar are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have posted 0.17 PPG from 6 outings (0W 1D 5L). That actually lags their 0.83 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Obolon'-Brovar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.83 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 3W 1D 8L in their last 12 games (0.83 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Obolon'-Brovar's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home: 0.17 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi won 3-0 on 2 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Obolon'-Brovar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1
Draws
1
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 3 meetings on record, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 1, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3-0 Obolon'-Brovar.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, 50% for Obolon'-Brovar — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 50% for Obolon'-Brovar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar in 33%; Obolon'-Brovar in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi play Obolon'-Brovar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's games and 50% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's matches and 50% of Obolon'-Brovar's.
Do Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Obolon'-Brovar tend to score early?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Obolon'-Brovar in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Obolon'-Brovar edge out Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Obolon'-Brovar beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-2 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.17 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.64 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.14 / defence 1.68 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.77 / defence 0.91, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 27% | Draw 25% | Obolon'-Brovar 48%, with Obolon'-Brovar to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 58%, Obolon'-Brovar 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Obolon'-Brovar arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.