Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3-3 Minai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 38%, yet in-form Minai provide a compelling counter-argument — this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Minai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Minai make the trip to to face Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in Premier League, Additional Qualification. The match kicks off on Friday 26 July 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all games): 0W 1D 1L across 2 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Minai's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Minai haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Minai have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Minai arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.34 xG and Minai 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Minai attack 0.946 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.211. Data: 0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 30 Minai games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 38% | Draw 26% | Minai 36%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Minai 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Minai (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Minai | Competition: Premier League, Additional Qualification | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 26 Jul 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 38% | Draw 26% | Minai 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.34 / Minai 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Minai attack 0.946 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Minai xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Minai kick off?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Minai kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 26 July 2024.
What was the final score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Minai?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3 - 3 Minai.
What competition is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Minai part of?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Minai is a Additional Qualification fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Minai?
Our statistical model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 38% chance of winning, Minai a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Epitsentr Dunayivtsi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Minai?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Minai will score (BTTS).
Will Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Minai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Minai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Minai in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack at 0.85x the league average against Minai's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Minai's attack (0.95x) against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Win
38%
2.67
26%
3.84
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Total xG
2.66
1.32
Minai xG
2.67
38%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
10%
9.95
10%
10.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Minai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Minai expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 1.32 for Minai, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Minai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent record stands at 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with D-L in the last five. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Minai, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L in their last five. Minai haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Minai by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Epitsentr Dunayivtsi heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Minai are on 1.50 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 2 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Pre-Season
Minai
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Minai in coming into this match?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Minai have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1
Draws
0
Minai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Minai?
From 1 meetings on record, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, Minai have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Minai last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2024, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3-3 Minai.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home games / Minai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi play Minai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's games and 50% of Minai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Minai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's matches and 100% of Minai's.
Do Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Minai tend to score early?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Minai in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Minai share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Minai finished level at 3-3 at , Additional Qualification, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.34 xG and Minai 1.32 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Minai outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Minai attack 0.95 / defence 1.16, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 38% | Draw 26% | Minai 36%, with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%, Minai 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Minai arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Minai scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.