Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4-0 Kolos Kovalivka – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Kolos Kovalivka at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Epitsentr Dunayivtsi face Kolos Kovalivka.

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Match Analysis

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi host Kolos Kovalivka at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion in Premier League (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 7 March 2026 at 11:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 7L across their last 9 home games (0.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.22 lags behind their overall 1.10 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Kolos Kovalivka — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Kolos Kovalivka's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.10 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, 1 for Kolos Kovalivka and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0–1 Kolos Kovalivka — a Kolos Kovalivka win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play tendencies (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 42% of games.

Kolos Kovalivka in-play tendencies (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 83%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 42% versus Kolos Kovalivka 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 58% | Kolos Kovalivka 26%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.78 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.816 / defence 1.372 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.952 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.196. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence rating of 1.372 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kolos Kovalivka's projected output up. Data: built from Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's last 18 games and Kolos Kovalivka's last 48.

Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 19% | Draw 25% | Kolos Kovalivka 56%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 5.40 | Draw 3.94 | Kolos Kovalivka 1.78. The model has a clear lean to Kolos Kovalivka (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Kolos Kovalivka as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 67% (last 9 home games) | Kolos Kovalivka 50% (last 10 away games).

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