Dynamo Kyiv 2-1 Polessya – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dynamo Kyiv vs Polessya encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dynamo Kyiv and Polessya meet at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dynamo Kyiv's overall Premier League record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo Kyiv's home record at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi.
Polessya have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Polessya's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Dynamo Kyiv's 2.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Polessya's 1.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dynamo Kyiv lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 3–0 with Dynamo Kyiv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Dynamo Kyiv half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Polessya half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo Kyiv 56% versus Polessya 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Kyiv 58% | Polessya 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Kyiv 1.44 xG and Polessya 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.430 / defence 0.924 | Polessya attack 1.253 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.065. Dynamo Kyiv carry an above-average attack strength of 1.430 — their λ of 1.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Polessya have an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — the away xG of 1.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Dynamo Kyiv games / 41 Polessya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 41% | Draw 28% | Polessya 31%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Kyiv 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Polessya 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Dynamo Kyiv 50% | Polessya 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Kyiv vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 41% | Draw 28% | Polessya 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Dynamo Kyiv 1.44 / Polessya 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.430 / def 0.924 | Polessya attack 1.253 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Polessya xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo Kyiv vs Polessya kick off?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Polessya kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi.
What was the final score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Polessya?
Dynamo Kyiv 2 - 1 Polessya.
Where is Dynamo Kyiv vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi.
What competition is Dynamo Kyiv vs Polessya part of?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Polessya is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Kyiv vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 41% chance of winning, Polessya a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dynamo Kyiv and Polessya will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo Kyiv vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Polessya?
Record (2 meetings): Dynamo Kyiv 1W | Draws 0 | Polessya 1W.
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Polessya in?
Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Polessya (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Dynamo Kyiv vs Polessya?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dynamo Kyiv's attack rating (1.43) and Polessya's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Polessya's attack (1.25x) against Dynamo Kyiv's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
41%
2.43
28%
3.62
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Total xG
2.68
1.23
Polessya xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
7%
13.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Kyiv vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Dynamo Kyiv and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 1.23 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Kyiv vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dynamo Kyiv come into this having played 41 games, going 31W 5D 5L for 2.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Polessya sit at 1.76 PPG from 41 outings (20W 12D 9L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Polessya — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Dynamo Kyiv's home form reads 14W 3D 2L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Polessya have taken 1.79 points per game from 19 outings (10W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 2.41 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.41 scored and 0.93 conceded. Dynamo Kyiv's scoring rate against Polessya's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Polessya in coming into this match?
Dynamo Kyiv have gone 31W 5D 5L in their last 41 games (2.39 PPG), while Polessya have gone 20W 12D 9L in their last 41 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Kyiv at home or Polessya away?
Dynamo Kyiv's home record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Kyiv at home: 2.37 PPG; Polessya away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Dynamo Kyiv or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Polessya in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Dynamo Kyiv have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dynamo Kyiv won 3-0 on 21 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Polessya — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Dynamo Kyiv
1
Draws
1
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Polessya?
From 6 meetings on record, Dynamo Kyiv have won 4, Polessya have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Kyiv and Polessya last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Polessya 1-2 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Kyiv and Polessya?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo Kyiv 42%, Polessya 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Dynamo Kyiv) and 47% (Polessya).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Polessya in 42%; Polessya in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Kyiv home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo Kyiv play Polessya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 37% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dynamo Kyiv vs Polessya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent games and 47% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo Kyiv and Polessya tend to score early?
Dynamo Kyiv have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Polessya in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dynamo Kyiv edge out Polessya 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Polessya 2-1 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 1.44 xG and Polessya 1.23 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.43 / defence 0.92 against Polessya attack 1.25 / defence 0.86, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 41% | Draw 28% | Polessya 31%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 58%, Polessya 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Polessya's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.76. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Polessya (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.