Dnipro-1 0-1 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Dnipro-1 at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Dynamo Kyiv travel to Stadion Avanhard to take on Dnipro-1. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 March 2023, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dnipro-1 stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dnipro-1 have posted 9W 1D 0L at Stadion Avanhard — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Dnipro-1 are significantly better at Stadion Avanhard than their overall form suggests.
Dynamo Kyiv — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Dynamo Kyiv have posted 8W 0D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dnipro-1 2.10 PPG, Dynamo Kyiv 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Dnipro-1, 1 for Dynamo Kyiv and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 3–0 with Dnipro-1 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Dnipro-1 trading profile (33 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Dynamo Kyiv trading profile (33 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 46% versus Dynamo Kyiv 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dnipro-1 67% | Dynamo Kyiv 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.52 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.251 / defence 0.793 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.062 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.428. Dnipro-1 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 1.52 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Dnipro-1's defence rating of 0.793 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Dnipro-1 games / 34 Dynamo Kyiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 45% | Draw 25% | Dynamo Kyiv 30%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Dynamo Kyiv 3.33. Dnipro-1 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dnipro-1 as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dnipro-1 60% | Dynamo Kyiv 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 45% | Draw 25% | Dynamo Kyiv 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Dnipro-1 1.52 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.251 / def 0.793 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.062 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Dynamo Kyiv xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Dnipro-1 0 - 1 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 45% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dnipro-1 and Dynamo Kyiv will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Dynamo Kyiv?
Record (2 meetings): Dnipro-1 1W | Draws 0 | Dynamo Kyiv 1W.
What form are Dnipro-1 and Dynamo Kyiv in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dnipro-1's attack at 1.25x the league average against Dynamo Kyiv's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo Kyiv's attack versus Dnipro-1's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
45%
2.24
25%
3.95
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
2.72
1.20
Dynamo Kyiv xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
7%
15.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 1.20 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dnipro-1 come into this having played 33 games, going 24W 4D 5L for 2.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dynamo Kyiv sit at 2.18 PPG from 33 outings (22W 6D 5L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dnipro-1 on 2.30 PPG, Dynamo Kyiv on 2.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dnipro-1's home form reads 13W 1D 1L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Dynamo Kyiv have taken 2.47 points per game from 15 outings (12W 1D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Dnipro-1 are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.03 scored and 0.73 conceded. Dnipro-1's scoring rate against Dynamo Kyiv's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Dynamo Kyiv in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 24W 4D 5L in their last 33 games (2.30 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 22W 6D 5L in their last 33 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dnipro-1 at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dnipro-1's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dnipro-1 at home: 2.67 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.47 PPG.
Have Dnipro-1 or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dnipro-1 and Dynamo Kyiv runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2022, when Dnipro-1 won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dnipro-1's record when hosting Dynamo Kyiv specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Dnipro-1
0
Draws
3
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Dynamo Kyiv?
From 5 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 2, Dynamo Kyiv have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Dnipro-1 1-2 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Dnipro-1 and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dnipro-1 40%, Dynamo Kyiv 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Dnipro-1 and 60% for Dynamo Kyiv. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Dynamo Kyiv in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play Dynamo Kyiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 53% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Dnipro-1's matches and 60% of Dynamo Kyiv's.
Do Dnipro-1 and Dynamo Kyiv tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Dynamo Kyiv in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dynamo Kyiv defy the odds to beat Dnipro-1 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Dnipro-1 0-1 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.52 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.20 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dnipro-1 fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.25 / defence 0.79 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.06 / defence 0.93, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 45% | Draw 25% | Dynamo Kyiv 30%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Dynamo Kyiv win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 67%, Dynamo Kyiv 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (33 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (33 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dnipro-1 2.30 PPG, Dynamo Kyiv 2.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dynamo Kyiv win broke the near-deadlock. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.