Desna 0-4 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Desna at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Desna vs Veres Rivne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Desna welcome Veres Rivne to Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv in Premier League (matchday 6). Kick-off is Sunday 29 August 2021 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 5 games, Desna have gone 4W 0D 1L — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Desna at home: 3W 0D 0L from their last 3 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from their last 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.40 — Desna are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 5 matches, Veres Rivne stand at 1W 2D 2L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Desna carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Desna in-play and half-time data (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Veres Rivne in-play and half-time data (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Desna 40% versus Veres Rivne 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Desna 80% | Veres Rivne 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Desna 2.00 xG and Veres Rivne 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Desna attack 1.171 / defence 0.848 | Veres Rivne attack 0.747 / defence 1.325. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.200. Veres Rivne's defence rating of 1.325 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Desna's projected output up. Veres Rivne's attack rating of 0.747 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Data: built from Desna's last 5 games and Veres Rivne's last 5.
Result probabilities: Desna 64% | Draw 26% | Veres Rivne 11%. Fair-value odds: Desna 1.57 | Draw 3.90 | Veres Rivne 9.45. The model has a clear lean to Desna (64%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Desna at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Desna 33% (last 3 home games) | Veres Rivne 40% (last 5 games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Desna vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, matchday 6 | Venue: Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv • Kick-off: Sunday 29 August 2021 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Desna 64% | Draw 26% | Veres Rivne 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Desna 2.00 / Veres Rivne 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Desna attack 1.171 / def 0.848 | Veres Rivne attack 0.747 / def 1.325 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Desna (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Desna xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Veres Rivne xG
49%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Desna vs Veres Rivne FAQs
What time does Desna vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Desna vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv.
What was the final score in Desna vs Veres Rivne?
Desna 0 - 4 Veres Rivne.
Where is Desna vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv.
What competition is Desna vs Veres Rivne part of?
Desna vs Veres Rivne is a Premier League fixture (matchday 6) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Desna vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Desna a 64% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 11% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Desna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Desna vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Desna and Veres Rivne will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Desna vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Desna's attack at 1.17x the league average against Veres Rivne's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Veres Rivne's attack versus Desna's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Desna's last 5 games and Veres Rivne's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Desna Win
64%
1.57
26%
3.90
11%
9.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Desna xG
Total xG
2.76
0.76
Veres Rivne xG
1.57
64%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
9.45
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
30%
3.36
1%
69.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Desna vs Veres Rivne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Desna vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Desna and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Desna and 0.76 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Desna vs Veres Rivne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Desna's recent record stands at 4W 0D 1L from 5 games, a 2.40 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Veres Rivne, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 2L across 5 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Desna by 1.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Veres Rivne heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Desna are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Desna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Veres Rivne in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Desna
Early Season
Veres Rivne
Early Season
Desna (Home) vs Veres Rivne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Desna
Early Season
Veres Rivne
Early Season
❓ Desna vs Veres Rivne Form FAQs
What form are Desna and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Desna have gone 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 games (2.40 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
Have Desna or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Desna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 1 H2H match in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 29 August 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Desna
0
Draws
1
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Desna vs Veres Rivne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Desna and Veres Rivne?
Across the 1 head-to-head match in our data, Desna have won 0, Veres Rivne have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Desna and Veres Rivne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2021: Desna 0-4 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Desna and Veres Rivne?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 1 head-to-head match in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Desna see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Veres Rivne see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Desna 40%, Veres Rivne 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Desna and 40% for Veres Rivne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Desna keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Veres Rivne in 40%; Veres Rivne in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Desna home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Desna vs Veres Rivne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Desna and Veres Rivne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Desna's recent matches and 40% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Desna and Veres Rivne matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Desna's matches and 40% of Veres Rivne's.
Dominant Veres Rivne run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Desna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne beat Desna 0-4 at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Desna 2.00 xG and Veres Rivne 0.76 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Desna fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Veres Rivne outscored their 0.76 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Desna attack 1.17 / defence 0.85 against Veres Rivne attack 0.75 / defence 1.32, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Desna 64% | Draw 26% | Veres Rivne 11%, with Desna to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Veres Rivne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Desna 80%, Veres Rivne 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Desna's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Desna arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Veres Rivne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Desna managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Veres Rivne scored 4 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.