Desna 1-1 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Desna face Oleksandria.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Oleksandria travel to Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv to take on Desna in Premier League (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Friday 22 October 2021 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Desna — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Desna have gone 4W 0D 2L in their last 6 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from their last 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Desna are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Oleksandria stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Oleksandria's away record over their last 8 away games: 3W 3D 2L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from their last 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Desna 1.40 PPG, Oleksandria 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Desna trading profile (last 11 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Oleksandria trading profile (last 11 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 33% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Desna 36% versus Oleksandria 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Desna 64% | Oleksandria 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Desna 0.95 xG and Oleksandria 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Desna attack 0.985 / defence 1.253 | Oleksandria attack 0.742 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.042 / away 1.187. Oleksandria's attack rating of 0.742 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Desna's defence rating of 1.253 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Oleksandria's projected output up. Data: built from Desna's last 11 games and Oleksandria's last 11.
Result probabilities: Desna 31% | Draw 30% | Oleksandria 39%. Fair-value odds: Desna 3.24 | Draw 3.31 | Oleksandria 2.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oleksandria are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Desna's last 6 home games and Oleksandria's last 8 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Desna 33% (last 6 home games) | Oleksandria 38% (last 8 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Desna vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, matchday 12 | Venue: Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv • Kick-off: Friday 22 October 2021 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Desna 31% | Draw 30% | Oleksandria 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Desna 0.95 / Oleksandria 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Desna attack 0.985 / def 1.253 | Oleksandria attack 0.742 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.042 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Desna xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Oleksandria xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Desna vs Oleksandria FAQs
What time does Desna vs Oleksandria kick off?
Desna vs Oleksandria kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Friday 22 October 2021 at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv.
What was the final score in Desna vs Oleksandria?
Desna 1 - 1 Oleksandria.
Where is Desna vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv.
What competition is Desna vs Oleksandria part of?
Desna vs Oleksandria is a Premier League fixture (matchday 12) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Desna vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Desna a 31% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Desna vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Desna and Oleksandria will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Desna vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Desna's attack at 0.98x the league average against Oleksandria's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus Desna's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Desna's last 11 games and Oleksandria's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
31%
3.24
30%
3.31
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Desna xG
Total xG
2.05
1.10
Oleksandria xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
10%
9.75
15%
6.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 14.2 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Desna vs Oleksandria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Desna vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Desna and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Desna and 1.10 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Desna vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Desna come into this having played 11 games, going 5W 2D 4L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Oleksandria sit at 1.64 PPG from 11 outings (5W 3D 3L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Desna on 1.55 PPG, Oleksandria on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Desna's home form reads 4W 0D 2L across their last 6 home games, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Desna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Oleksandria have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 6 away games (2W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Desna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Desna are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.00 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Desna have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Oleksandria in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Desna
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
Desna (Home) vs Oleksandria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Desna
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Desna vs Oleksandria Form FAQs
What form are Desna and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Desna have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 games (1.55 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Desna at home or Oleksandria away?
Desna's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Desna at home: 2.00 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Desna or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Desna have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 1 H2H match we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 22 October 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Desna
1
Draws
0
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Desna vs Oleksandria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Desna and Oleksandria?
Across the 1 head-to-head match in our data, Desna have won 0, Oleksandria have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Desna and Oleksandria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 October 2021: Desna 1-1 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Desna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Desna 33%, Oleksandria 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Desna) and 33% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Desna keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Oleksandria in 33%; Oleksandria in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Desna home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Desna vs Oleksandria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Desna and Oleksandria matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Desna's recent matches and 50% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Desna and Oleksandria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Desna's recent games and 33% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Desna and Oleksandria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv, Regular Season - 12, as Desna and Oleksandria drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Desna 0.95 xG and Oleksandria 1.10 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Desna attack 0.98 / defence 1.25 against Oleksandria attack 0.74 / defence 0.93, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Desna 31% | Draw 30% | Oleksandria 39%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Desna 64%, Oleksandria 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Desna's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Oleksandria's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Desna 1.55 PPG, Oleksandria 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.