Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Epitsentr Dunayivtsi travel to to take on Chornomorets. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chornomorets — All Games: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Chornomorets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chornomorets have posted 1W 1D 1L at — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at .
Looking at all fixtures this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Chornomorets in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Chornomorets 25% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chornomorets 25% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 0.83 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.750 / defence 0.914 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.245 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.082. Chornomorets's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have an above-average attack strength of 1.245 — the away xG of 1.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 Chornomorets games / 34 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 23% | Draw 33% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 44%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 4.35 | Draw 3.03 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 33% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 23% | Draw 33% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Chornomorets 0.83 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.750 / def 0.914 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.245 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 23% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 44% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Epitsentr Dunayivtsi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Chornomorets and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chornomorets and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chornomorets's attack at 0.75x the league average against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Win
23%
4.32
33%
3.00
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.06
1.23
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
4.32
23%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
7%
14.81
19%
5.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 15.6 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.23 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chornomorets come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Chornomorets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi sit at 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Chornomorets are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 1.50 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Chornomorets have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 0%.
Defensively: Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 75% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Early Season
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
Have Chornomorets or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 75%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chornomorets see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Chornomorets 25% BTTS, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Chornomorets) and 50% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 75%; Chornomorets have failed to score in 50% of games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 0% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Chornomorets's recent games and 50% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.