Trabzonspor 3-2 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 27 as Trabzonspor welcome Kayserispor to Medical Park Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Friday 25 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor at Medical Park Stadyumu this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Medical Park Stadyumu.
Kayserispor — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kayserispor have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Trabzonspor have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Trabzonspor, 0 for Kayserispor and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Kayserispor in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 58% versus Kayserispor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 54% | Kayserispor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.85 xG and Kayserispor 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.065 / defence 0.790 | Kayserispor attack 0.855 / defence 1.546. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.146. Kayserispor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.546 — this is suppressing Trabzonspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 0.790 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 26 Trabzonspor games / 26 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 63% | Draw 23% | Kayserispor 15%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Kayserispor 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Trabzonspor 40% | Kayserispor 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Medical Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 25 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 63% | Draw 23% | Kayserispor 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 46% | xG Trabzonspor 1.85 / Kayserispor 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.065 / def 0.790 | Kayserispor attack 0.855 / def 1.546 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Kayserispor xG
46%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 25 February 2022 at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor?
Trabzonspor 3 - 2 Kayserispor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 63% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Trabzonspor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Kayserispor?
Record (1 meetings): Trabzonspor 1W | Draws 0 | Kayserispor 0W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Kayserispor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Kayserispor (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Trabzonspor's attack rating (1.06) and Kayserispor's defence rating (1.55), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kayserispor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
63%
1.60
23%
4.37
15%
6.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.63
0.77
Kayserispor xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
6.85
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
29%
3.47
2%
43.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 10.4 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.77 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trabzonspor's recent record stands at 19W 6D 1L from 26 games, a 2.42 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kayserispor, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 8L across 26 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kayserispor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Trabzonspor have managed 9W 4D 0L from 13 games — 2.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kayserispor's away record stands at 1W 5D 7L across 13 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.46 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kayserispor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.46 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 19W 6D 1L in their last 26 games (2.42 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 10W 8D 8L in their last 26 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.38 PPG; Kayserispor away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Kayserispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Kayserispor in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Trabzonspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Oct 2025, when Trabzonspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Kayserispor specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
2
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Kayserispor?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 6, Kayserispor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2026, when Kayserispor 1-3 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Kayserispor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 54%, Kayserispor 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Trabzonspor) and 54% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Kayserispor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Trabzonspor's games and 69% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 54% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Kayserispor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Kayserispor 3-2 at Medical Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.85 xG and Kayserispor 0.77 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kayserispor outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.06 / defence 0.79 against Kayserispor attack 0.85 / defence 1.55, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 63% | Draw 23% | Kayserispor 15%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 54%, Kayserispor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Kayserispor's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.46. That form edge translated into the three points. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kayserispor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.