Trabzonspor 0-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Trabzonspor face Kayserispor.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Trabzonspor welcome Kayserispor to Papara Park in Süper Lig (matchday 14). Kick-off is Sunday 3 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Trabzonspor have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Trabzonspor at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Kayserispor — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Kayserispor have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Trabzonspor at 2.00 PPG versus Kayserispor's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Trabzonspor have won 3, Kayserispor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2023, ended Trabzonspor 3–4 Kayserispor — a Kayserispor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Kayserispor in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 56% versus Kayserispor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 62% | Kayserispor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.93 xG and Kayserispor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.075 / defence 0.841 | Kayserispor attack 1.138 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.248. Data: built from Trabzonspor's last 48 games and Kayserispor's last 49.
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 53% | Draw 24% | Kayserispor 22%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.88 | Draw 4.09 | Kayserispor 4.49. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.93 / 1.20) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Trabzonspor's last 10 home games and Kayserispor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Trabzonspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Kayserispor 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 14 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 53% | Draw 24% | Kayserispor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Trabzonspor 1.93 / Kayserispor 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.075 / def 0.841 | Kayserispor attack 1.138 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Kayserispor xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor FAQs
What time does Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor?
Trabzonspor 0 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 14) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 53% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Trabzonspor and Kayserispor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Trabzonspor's attack rating (1.07) and Kayserispor's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kayserispor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Trabzonspor's last 48 games and Kayserispor's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.09
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.12
1.20
Kayserispor xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
15%
6.88
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
3%
30.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.1 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.20 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trabzonspor's recent record stands at 23W 8D 17L from 48 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Kayserispor, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 17L across 48 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trabzonspor on 1.60 PPG, Kayserispor on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Trabzonspor have managed 16W 4D 3L from their last 23 home games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kayserispor's away record stands at 8W 5D 10L across their last 23 away games, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.52 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
Trabzonspor (Home) vs Kayserispor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Trabzonspor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor Form FAQs
What form are Trabzonspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 23W 8D 17L in their last 48 games (1.60 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 21W 10D 17L in their last 48 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.26 PPG; Kayserispor away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Kayserispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Kayserispor in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 9 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Trabzonspor have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Oct 2025, when Trabzonspor won Trabzonspor 4-0 Kayserispor.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Kayserispor specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
2
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Kayserispor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Trabzonspor have won 6, Kayserispor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2026: Kayserispor 1-3 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Kayserispor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 44%, Kayserispor 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Trabzonspor and 70% for Kayserispor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Kayserispor in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Trabzonspor and Kayserispor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 65% of Kayserispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Trabzonspor and Kayserispor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Trabzonspor's matches and 70% of Kayserispor's.
Do Trabzonspor and Kayserispor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 83% of Kayserispor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kayserispor defy the odds to beat Trabzonspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Trabzonspor 0-1 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.93 xG and Kayserispor 1.20 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Trabzonspor fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.07 / defence 0.84 against Kayserispor attack 1.14 / defence 1.15, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 53% | Draw 24% | Kayserispor 22%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Kayserispor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 62%, Kayserispor 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Kayserispor's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.60 PPG, Kayserispor 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.