Trabzonspor 1-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 2 as Trabzonspor welcome Hatayspor to Medical Park Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Medical Park Stadyumu, Trabzonspor have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Medical Park Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hatayspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Hatayspor away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Trabzonspor 1.40 PPG, Hatayspor 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Trabzonspor register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Hatayspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Trabzonspor, 0 for Hatayspor and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Trabzonspor trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Hatayspor trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 66% and Hatayspor 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 53% | Hatayspor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.95 xG and Hatayspor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.069 / defence 0.942 | Hatayspor attack 0.921 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.385. Data: 39 Trabzonspor games / 38 Hatayspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 53% | Draw 25% | Hatayspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Hatayspor 4.55. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 80% | Hatayspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Medical Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 12 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 53% | Draw 25% | Hatayspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Trabzonspor 1.95 / Hatayspor 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.069 / def 0.942 | Hatayspor attack 0.921 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Hatayspor xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 August 2022 at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor?
Trabzonspor 1 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 53% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Trabzonspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Hatayspor?
Record (2 meetings): Trabzonspor 1W | Draws 1 | Hatayspor 0W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Hatayspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Hatayspor's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
53%
1.87
25%
4.06
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.15
1.20
Hatayspor xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
14%
7.04
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
3%
32.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.20 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor come into this having played 38 games, going 23W 12D 3L for 2.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 1.39 PPG from 38 outings (15W 8D 15L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. Hatayspor haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trabzonspor's home form reads 12W 7D 0L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.95 points per game from 19 outings (5W 3D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hatayspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.47 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Early Season
Hatayspor
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 23W 12D 3L in their last 38 games (2.13 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 15W 8D 15L in their last 38 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.26 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trabzonspor and Hatayspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
3
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 3, Hatayspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Trabzonspor 1-2 Hatayspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 68%, Hatayspor 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Trabzonspor) and 53% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Hatayspor in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Hatayspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Trabzonspor's games and 47% of Hatayspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 53% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Hatayspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Hatayspor 1-0 at Medical Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.95 xG and Hatayspor 1.20 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Trabzonspor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Hatayspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.07 / defence 0.94 against Hatayspor attack 0.92 / defence 1.19, drawn from 39/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 53% | Draw 25% | Hatayspor 22%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 53%, Hatayspor 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hatayspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.