İstanbulspor 1-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates İstanbulspor at 36%, yet in-form Samsunspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
İstanbulspor host Samsunspor at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 23). Kick-off is Monday 29 January 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, İstanbulspor stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
İstanbulspor's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Samsunspor — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Samsunspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Samsunspor are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of İstanbulspor's games and 60% of Samsunspor's (from İstanbulspor's last 10 home games and Samsunspor's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for İstanbulspor, 1 for Samsunspor and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2023, ended İstanbulspor 1–2 Samsunspor — a Samsunspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
İstanbulspor trading profile (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Samsunspor trading profile (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — İstanbulspor 54% versus Samsunspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (İstanbulspor 50% | Samsunspor 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: İstanbulspor surrender their half-time lead 75% of the time, while Samsunspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects İstanbulspor 1.33 xG and Samsunspor 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: İstanbulspor attack 0.765 / defence 1.302 | Samsunspor attack 0.827 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.199. İstanbulspor's attack rating of 0.765 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.33. İstanbulspor's defence rating of 1.302 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Samsunspor's projected output up. Data: built from İstanbulspor's last 58 games and Samsunspor's last 22.
Result probabilities: İstanbulspor 36% | Draw 30% | Samsunspor 34%. Fair-value odds: İstanbulspor 2.78 | Draw 3.37 | Samsunspor 2.91. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates İstanbulspor as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Samsunspor (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on İstanbulspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: İstanbulspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Samsunspor 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 23 | Venue: Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 29 January 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: İstanbulspor 36% | Draw 30% | Samsunspor 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG İstanbulspor 1.33 / Samsunspor 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: İstanbulspor attack 0.765 / def 1.302 | Samsunspor attack 0.827 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: İstanbulspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
İstanbulspor xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Samsunspor xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor FAQs
What time does İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Monday 29 January 2024 at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What was the final score in İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor?
İstanbulspor 1 - 1 Samsunspor.
Where is İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What competition is İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor part of?
İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 23) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives İstanbulspor a 36% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making İstanbulspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both İstanbulspor and Samsunspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
İstanbulspor's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Samsunspor's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus İstanbulspor's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from İstanbulspor's last 58 games and Samsunspor's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
İstanbulspor Win
36%
2.78
30%
3.37
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
İstanbulspor xG
Total xG
2.62
1.29
Samsunspor xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
10%
10.10
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are İstanbulspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for İstanbulspor and 1.29 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
İstanbulspor's recent record stands at 3W 4D 15L from 22 games, a 0.59 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Samsunspor, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 11L across 22 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Samsunspor by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over İstanbulspor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, İstanbulspor have managed 2W 2D 7L from their last 11 home games — 0.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Samsunspor's away record stands at 1W 2D 8L across their last 11 away games, a 0.45 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's recent record.
The Goals Picture
İstanbulspor are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.18 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
İstanbulspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
İstanbulspor (Home) vs Samsunspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
İstanbulspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor Form FAQs
What form are İstanbulspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
İstanbulspor have gone 3W 4D 15L in their last 22 games (0.59 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 7W 4D 11L in their last 22 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — İstanbulspor at home or Samsunspor away?
İstanbulspor's home record (0.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — İstanbulspor at home: 0.73 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 29 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
İstanbulspor
1
Draws
1
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Samsunspor?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, İstanbulspor have won 0, Samsunspor have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did İstanbulspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 January 2024: İstanbulspor 1-1 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between İstanbulspor and Samsunspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — İstanbulspor 64%, Samsunspor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (İstanbulspor) and 46% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: İstanbulspor have failed to score in 36% of games; Samsunspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = İstanbulspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in İstanbulspor and Samsunspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of İstanbulspor's games and 64% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are İstanbulspor and Samsunspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of İstanbulspor's recent games and 46% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do İstanbulspor and Samsunspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of İstanbulspor's recent matches and 73% of Samsunspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
İstanbulspor and Samsunspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, as İstanbulspor and Samsunspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting İstanbulspor 1.33 xG and Samsunspor 1.29 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of İstanbulspor attack 0.77 / defence 1.30 against Samsunspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.15, drawn from 58/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it İstanbulspor 36% | Draw 30% | Samsunspor 34%, with İstanbulspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (İstanbulspor 50%, Samsunspor 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
İstanbulspor's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Samsunspor's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.59. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.