Sivasspor 4-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu plays host to Sivasspor versus Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Thursday 20 April 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sivasspor have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sivasspor have posted 3W 3D 4L at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Trabzonspor (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Trabzonspor in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sivasspor, 2 for Trabzonspor and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Trabzonspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sivasspor — key trading statistics (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sivasspor 62% and Trabzonspor 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 55% | Trabzonspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.78 xG and Trabzonspor 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.882 / defence 0.897 | Trabzonspor attack 0.813 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.298. Data: 66 Sivasspor games / 65 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 57% | Draw 24% | Trabzonspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Trabzonspor 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Sivasspor (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sivasspor as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 60% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Thursday 20 Apr 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 57% | Draw 24% | Trabzonspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Sivasspor 1.78 / Trabzonspor 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.882 / def 0.897 | Trabzonspor attack 0.813 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.710 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Trabzonspor xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 18:30 on Thursday 20 April 2023 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor?
Sivasspor 4 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 57% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sivasspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (3 meetings): Sivasspor 0W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 2W.
What form are Sivasspor and Trabzonspor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sivasspor's attack rating (0.88) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (0.81x) against Sivasspor's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 66/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.24
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.73
0.95
Trabzonspor xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
17%
5.96
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
3%
30.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.0 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Sivasspor and 0.95 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 65 outings, Sivasspor have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 22W 19D 24L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Trabzonspor's form line: 35W 18D 12L from 65 games, 1.89 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sivasspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sivasspor have posted 1.42 PPG from 31 outings (10W 14D 7L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 14W 7D 10L from 31 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sivasspor are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.71 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Trabzonspor in 60%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 22W 19D 24L in their last 65 games (1.31 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 35W 18D 12L in their last 65 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.42 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Sivasspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 4-0 on 20 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sivasspor have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sivasspor
3
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Trabzonspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2025, when Trabzonspor 4-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Sivasspor, 68% for Trabzonspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Sivasspor) and 61% (Trabzonspor).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sivasspor's games and 68% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Sivasspor's recent games and 61% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sivasspor run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Trabzonspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Trabzonspor 4-1 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.78 xG and Trabzonspor 0.95 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Sivasspor beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.88 / defence 0.90 against Trabzonspor attack 0.81 / defence 1.18, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 57% | Draw 24% | Trabzonspor 20%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 55%, Trabzonspor 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Sivasspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.