Sivasspor 2-1 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sivasspor face Rizespor.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sivasspor host Rizespor at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 2 November 2024 at 10:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Sivasspor — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sivasspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Rizespor have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Rizespor have posted 3W 0D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sivasspor at 1.40 PPG versus Rizespor's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Sivasspor, 0 for Rizespor and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Feb 2024, ended Sivasspor 1–0 Rizespor — a Sivasspor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sivasspor trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Rizespor trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 60% versus Rizespor 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 51% | Rizespor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.70 xG and Rizespor 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 1.043 / defence 1.077 | Rizespor attack 0.776 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.329. Rizespor's attack rating of 0.776 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Data: built from Sivasspor's last 48 games and Rizespor's last 47.
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 50% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 24%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 1.98 | Draw 3.95 | Rizespor 4.12. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sivasspor's last 10 home games and Rizespor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sivasspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Rizespor 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 11 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 50% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Sivasspor 1.70 / Rizespor 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 1.043 / def 1.077 | Rizespor attack 0.776 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Rizespor xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sivasspor vs Rizespor FAQs
What time does Sivasspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Saturday 2 November 2024 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Rizespor?
Sivasspor 2 - 1 Rizespor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Rizespor part of?
Sivasspor vs Rizespor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 11) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 50% chance of winning, Rizespor a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sivasspor and Rizespor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sivasspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sivasspor's attack at 1.04x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sivasspor's last 48 games and Rizespor's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
50%
1.98
25%
3.95
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.81
1.11
Rizespor xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
4%
22.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.4 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sivasspor vs Rizespor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.11 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sivasspor come into this having played 47 games, going 18W 13D 16L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.28 PPG from 47 outings (17W 9D 21L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.43 PPG, Rizespor on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sivasspor's home form reads 9W 8D 6L across their last 23 home games, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 0.78 points per game from their last 23 away games (5W 3D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sivasspor are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.15 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
Sivasspor (Home) vs Rizespor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sivasspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Sivasspor vs Rizespor Form FAQs
What form are Sivasspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 18W 13D 16L in their last 47 games (1.43 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 17W 9D 21L in their last 47 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Rizespor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.52 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sivasspor's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sivasspor
3
Draws
0
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Sivasspor vs Rizespor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Rizespor?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sivasspor have won 3, Rizespor have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Rizespor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2025: Rizespor 1-1 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Rizespor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 56%, Rizespor 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sivasspor) and 65% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Sivasspor keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Rizespor in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sivasspor vs Rizespor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sivasspor and Rizespor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 48% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sivasspor and Rizespor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sivasspor's recent games and 65% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Rizespor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 87% of Rizespor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sivasspor edge out Rizespor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Rizespor 2-1 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.70 xG and Rizespor 1.11 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 1.04 / defence 1.08 against Rizespor attack 0.78 / defence 1.12, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 50% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 24%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 51%, Rizespor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Rizespor's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.43 PPG, Rizespor 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.