Sivasspor 4-1 Pendikspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Pendikspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sivasspor host Pendikspor at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 February 2024 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sivasspor — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pendikspor stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pendikspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pendikspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sivasspor at 1.60 PPG versus Pendikspor's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sivasspor have won 1, Pendikspor 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 3–2 with Sivasspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sivasspor trading profile (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Pendikspor trading profile (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sivasspor 62% and Pendikspor 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 42% | Pendikspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.73 xG and Pendikspor 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.874 / defence 0.871 | Pendikspor attack 0.840 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.197. Pendikspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing Sivasspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Sivasspor games / 26 Pendikspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 55% | Draw 29% | Pendikspor 16%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 1.82 | Draw 3.45 | Pendikspor 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Sivasspor (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sivasspor are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 50% | Pendikspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Pendikspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 55% | Draw 29% | Pendikspor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Sivasspor 1.73 / Pendikspor 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.874 / def 0.871 | Pendikspor attack 0.840 / def 1.345 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Pendikspor xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Pendikspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Pendikspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Pendikspor?
Sivasspor 4 - 1 Pendikspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Pendikspor being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Pendikspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Pendikspor is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Pendikspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 55% chance of winning, Pendikspor a 16% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Pendikspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sivasspor and Pendikspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Pendikspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Pendikspor?
Record (1 meetings): Sivasspor 1W | Draws 0 | Pendikspor 0W.
What form are Sivasspor and Pendikspor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Pendikspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sivasspor's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Pendikspor's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Pendikspor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
55%
1.82
29%
3.47
16%
6.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.60
0.88
Pendikspor xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
6.17
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
3%
34.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Pendikspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Pendikspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Sivasspor and 0.88 for Pendikspor, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Pendikspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sivasspor's recent record stands at 8W 10D 8L from 26 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pendikspor, meanwhile, have gone 6W 8D 12L across 26 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Pendikspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.31 PPG, Pendikspor on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sivasspor have managed 3W 7D 2L from 12 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pendikspor's away record stands at 2W 4D 6L across 12 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sivasspor are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Pendikspor are on 1.19 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Pendikspor in 65%.
Last 26 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Pendikspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Pendikspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 8W 10D 8L in their last 26 games (1.31 PPG), while Pendikspor have gone 6W 8D 12L in their last 26 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Pendikspor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.33 PPG; Pendikspor away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Sivasspor
0
Draws
0
Pendikspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Pendikspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 2, Pendikspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Pendikspor last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Sivasspor 4-1 Pendikspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Pendikspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sivasspor at 58%, Pendikspor at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Sivasspor) and 58% (Pendikspor).
On the defensive side: Sivasspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Pendikspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Pendikspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Sivasspor's games and 75% of Pendikspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Pendikspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Sivasspor's recent games and 58% of Pendikspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Pendikspor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Pendikspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sivasspor run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Pendikspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Pendikspor 4-1 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.73 xG and Pendikspor 0.88 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Sivasspor beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.87 / defence 0.87 against Pendikspor attack 0.84 / defence 1.34, drawn from 62/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 55% | Draw 29% | Pendikspor 16%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 42%, Pendikspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Pendikspor's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.31 PPG, Pendikspor 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Pendikspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.