Sivasspor 0-0 Giresunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Giresunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Giresunspor make the trip to Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu to face Sivasspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 November 2021 at 10:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sivasspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sivasspor have posted 1W 4D 1L at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu — 1.17 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Giresunspor have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Giresunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Giresunspor away from home this season: 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Sivasspor against 0.90 for Giresunspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Sivasspor half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Giresunspor half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 73% versus Giresunspor 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sivasspor 46% | Giresunspor 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.32 xG and Giresunspor 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 1.029 / defence 1.187 | Giresunspor attack 0.707 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.110. Data: 11 Sivasspor games / 11 Giresunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 46% | Draw 28% | Giresunspor 26%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Giresunspor 3.85. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sivasspor are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sivasspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sivasspor 67% | Giresunspor 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Giresunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 46% | Draw 28% | Giresunspor 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Sivasspor 1.32 / Giresunspor 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 1.029 / def 1.187 | Giresunspor attack 0.707 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Giresunspor xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Giresunspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Giresunspor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Giresunspor?
Sivasspor 0 - 0 Giresunspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Giresunspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Giresunspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Giresunspor is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Giresunspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 46% chance of winning, Giresunspor a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Giresunspor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sivasspor and Giresunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Giresunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Giresunspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sivasspor and Giresunspor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Giresunspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sivasspor's attack at 1.03x the league average against Giresunspor's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Giresunspor's attack (0.71x) against Sivasspor's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
46%
2.19
28%
3.58
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.26
0.93
Giresunspor xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
7%
14.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Giresunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Giresunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Sivasspor and 0.93 for Giresunspor, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Giresunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Sivasspor have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 2W 6D 3L record — W-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Giresunspor's form line: 2W 3D 6L from 11 games, 0.82 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Giresunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Sivasspor against 0.82 for Giresunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sivasspor have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (1W 4D 0L).
On the road, Giresunspor have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sivasspor are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Giresunspor are on 0.64 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Giresunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Giresunspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 2W 6D 3L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while Giresunspor have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Giresunspor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.40 PPG; Giresunspor away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sivasspor won 3-0 on 17 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sivasspor have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Giresunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sivasspor
2
Draws
1
Giresunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Giresunspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 1, Giresunspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Giresunspor last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2023, when Giresunspor 1-0 Sivasspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 80%, Giresunspor 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Sivasspor) and 20% (Giresunspor).
On the defensive side: Giresunspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Giresunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Giresunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Sivasspor's games and 40% of Giresunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Giresunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Sivasspor's recent games and 20% of Giresunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Giresunspor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Giresunspor in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sivasspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, as Sivasspor and Giresunspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.32 xG and Giresunspor 0.93 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sivasspor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Giresunspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 1.03 / defence 1.19 against Giresunspor attack 0.71 / defence 1.05, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 46% | Draw 28% | Giresunspor 26%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 46%, Giresunspor 18%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Giresunspor's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.09 PPG, Giresunspor 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Giresunspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.