Sivasspor 1-3 Ankaragücü – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sivasspor face Ankaragücü.

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Full Analysis

Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu plays host to Sivasspor versus Ankaragücü in Süper Lig (matchday 5). Kick-off: Monday 18 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Sivasspor have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Sivasspor at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Sivasspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Ankaragücü (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Ankaragücü away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Sivasspor, 0.90 for Ankaragücü — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Sivasspor, 1 for Ankaragücü and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Mar 2023, ended Sivasspor 2–0 Ankaragücü — a Sivasspor win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Sivasspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

Ankaragücü goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sivasspor 60% and Ankaragücü 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 55% | Ankaragücü 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.30 xG and Ankaragücü 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.901 / defence 0.921 | Ankaragücü attack 0.946 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.378. Data: built from Sivasspor's last 40 games and Ankaragücü's last 40.

Result probabilities: Sivasspor 35% | Draw 34% | Ankaragücü 30%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.83 | Draw 2.92 | Ankaragücü 3.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sivasspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sivasspor 70% (last 10 home games) | Ankaragücü 50% (last 10 away games).

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