Samsunspor 0-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Samsunspor face Konyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Konyaspor make the trip to Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu to face Samsunspor in Süper Lig (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Saturday 14 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Samsunspor (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Samsunspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Samsunspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Konyaspor have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Konyaspor have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Samsunspor, 0.90 for Konyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Konyaspor edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 May 2024, ended Samsunspor 0–3 Konyaspor — a Konyaspor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 51% versus Konyaspor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 42% | Konyaspor 42%). Note also that Konyaspor surrender HT leads in 54% of cases while Samsunspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.55 xG and Konyaspor 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.891 / defence 0.984 | Konyaspor attack 1.042 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.307. Data: built from Samsunspor's last 41 games and Konyaspor's last 42.
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 41% | Draw 28% | Konyaspor 31%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.46 | Draw 3.58 | Konyaspor 3.18. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.55 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Samsunspor at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Samsunspor 40% (last 10 home games) | Konyaspor 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 5 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 41% | Draw 28% | Konyaspor 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Samsunspor 1.55 / Konyaspor 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.891 / def 0.984 | Konyaspor attack 1.042 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Konyaspor xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Samsunspor vs Konyaspor FAQs
What time does Samsunspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Samsunspor 0 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Konyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 5) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 41% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Samsunspor and Konyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Samsunspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Samsunspor's attack at 0.89x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.04x) against Samsunspor's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from Samsunspor's last 41 games and Konyaspor's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.58
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.89
1.34
Konyaspor xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
7%
14.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Samsunspor vs Konyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.34 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Samsunspor have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 13W 10D 18L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Konyaspor's form line: 10W 14D 17L from 41 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Samsunspor against 1.07 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Samsunspor have posted 1.75 PPG from their last 20 home games (10W 5D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Samsunspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 4W 8D 8L from their last 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Samsunspor are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.07 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
Samsunspor (Home) vs Konyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Samsunspor
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
❓ Samsunspor vs Konyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Samsunspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 13W 10D 18L in their last 41 games (1.20 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 10W 14D 17L in their last 41 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.75 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won Konyaspor 3-0 Samsunspor on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Samsunspor
2
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Samsunspor vs Konyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Konyaspor?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Samsunspor have won 3, Konyaspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Samsunspor 1-0 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Konyaspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 50%, Konyaspor 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Samsunspor) and 45% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Konyaspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Samsunspor vs Konyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Samsunspor and Konyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 55% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Samsunspor and Konyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Samsunspor's recent games and 45% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Konyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 60% of Konyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Konyaspor defy the odds to beat Samsunspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Samsunspor 0-1 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.55 xG and Konyaspor 1.34 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Samsunspor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.89 / defence 0.98 against Konyaspor attack 1.04 / defence 1.17, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 41% | Draw 28% | Konyaspor 31%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 42%, Konyaspor 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Konyaspor's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.20 PPG, Konyaspor 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Konyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.