Rizespor 2-1 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rizespor at 37%, yet in-form Antalyaspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Rizespor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antalyaspor make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig (matchday 8). The match kicks off on Friday 4 October 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Rizespor have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Rizespor's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Rizespor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Antalyaspor (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Antalyaspor are 0.70 PPG clear of Rizespor over their recent games (1.20 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Rizespor, 1 for Antalyaspor and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2024, ended Rizespor 3–0 Antalyaspor — a Rizespor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 40% versus Antalyaspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 53% | Antalyaspor 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Rizespor surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Antalyaspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.35 xG and Antalyaspor 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.718 / defence 1.082 | Antalyaspor attack 0.928 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.315. Rizespor's attack rating of 0.718 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.35. Antalyaspor's defence rating of 1.275 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rizespor's projected output up. Data: built from Rizespor's last 45 games and Antalyaspor's last 45.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 37% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.72 | Draw 3.59 | Antalyaspor 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rizespor as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Antalyaspor (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Rizespor's last 10 home games and Antalyaspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rizespor 40% (last 10 home games) | Antalyaspor 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 8 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 4 October 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 37% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Rizespor 1.35 / Antalyaspor 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.718 / def 1.082 | Antalyaspor attack 0.928 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Antalyaspor xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rizespor vs Antalyaspor FAQs
What time does Rizespor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 4 October 2024 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Antalyaspor?
Rizespor 2 - 1 Antalyaspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Rizespor vs Antalyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 8) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 37% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Rizespor and Antalyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rizespor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Rizespor's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Antalyaspor's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.93x) against Rizespor's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from Rizespor's last 45 games and Antalyaspor's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
37%
2.72
28%
3.59
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.67
1.32
Antalyaspor xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
10%
10.15
9%
10.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rizespor vs Antalyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.32 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rizespor come into this having played 45 games, going 15W 9D 21L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.27 PPG from 45 outings (14W 15D 16L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Rizespor against 1.27 for Antalyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Rizespor's home form reads 11W 5D 6L across their last 22 home games, a 1.73 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 0.82 points per game from their last 22 away games (4W 6D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rizespor are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.18 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antalyaspor in 60%.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Early Season
Antalyaspor
Early Season
Rizespor (Home) vs Antalyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rizespor
Early Season
Antalyaspor
Early Season
❓ Rizespor vs Antalyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Rizespor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 15W 9D 21L in their last 45 games (1.20 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 14W 15D 16L in their last 45 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.73 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Rizespor and Antalyaspor, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 8 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Rizespor have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rizespor won Rizespor 3-0 Antalyaspor on 14 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Rizespor
1
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Rizespor vs Antalyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Antalyaspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Rizespor have won 5, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2026: Rizespor 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Antalyaspor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rizespor see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 32%, Antalyaspor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Rizespor) and 54% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Rizespor have failed to score in 32% of games; Antalyaspor in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rizespor vs Antalyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rizespor and Antalyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Rizespor's recent matches and 64% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rizespor and Antalyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Rizespor's recent games and 54% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Antalyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Rizespor's recent matches and 82% of Antalyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rizespor edge out Antalyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Antalyaspor 2-1 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.35 xG and Antalyaspor 1.32 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.72 / defence 1.08 against Antalyaspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.27, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 37% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 35%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 53%, Antalyaspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.20 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.