Pendikspor 1-0 İstanbulspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pendikspor at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees İstanbulspor travel to Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu to take on Pendikspor. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 March 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Pendikspor have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pendikspor have posted 4W 1D 5L at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, İstanbulspor stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, İstanbulspor have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Pendikspor) versus 0.70 (İstanbulspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Pendikspor, 0 for İstanbulspor and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 4–2 with Pendikspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Pendikspor trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
İstanbulspor trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pendikspor 66% and İstanbulspor 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pendikspor 52% | İstanbulspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 1.36 xG and İstanbulspor 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.819 / defence 1.285 | İstanbulspor attack 0.891 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.159. Data: 29 Pendikspor games / 65 İstanbulspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pendikspor 36% | Draw 30% | İstanbulspor 34%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | İstanbulspor 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pendikspor at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pendikspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Pendikspor 30% | İstanbulspor 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 15 Mar 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pendikspor 36% | Draw 30% | İstanbulspor 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Pendikspor 1.36 / İstanbulspor 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Pendikspor attack 0.819 / def 1.285 | İstanbulspor attack 0.891 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Pendikspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Pendikspor xG
Expected Goals
1.33
İstanbulspor xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor kick off?
Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 15 March 2024 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor?
Pendikspor 1 - 0 İstanbulspor.
Where is Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor being played?
The match is being played at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What competition is Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor part of?
Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our statistical model gives Pendikspor a 36% chance of winning, İstanbulspor a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pendikspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Pendikspor and İstanbulspor will score (BTTS).
Will Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and İstanbulspor?
Record (1 meetings): Pendikspor 1W | Draws 0 | İstanbulspor 0W.
What form are Pendikspor and İstanbulspor in?
Pendikspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. İstanbulspor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pendikspor's attack rating (0.82) and İstanbulspor's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, İstanbulspor's attack versus Pendikspor's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pendikspor Win
36%
2.80
30%
3.29
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Pendikspor xG
Total xG
2.69
1.33
İstanbulspor xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
9%
10.57
9%
11.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Pendikspor and İstanbulspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Pendikspor and 1.33 for İstanbulspor, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Pendikspor have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 6W 8D 15L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
İstanbulspor's form line: 3W 7D 19L from 29 games, 0.55 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pendikspor on 0.90 PPG, İstanbulspor on 0.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pendikspor have posted 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (4W 3D 7L).
On the road, İstanbulspor have gone 1W 4D 9L from 14 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pendikspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pendikspor are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; İstanbulspor are on 0.79 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pendikspor
Current Season
İstanbulspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pendikspor and İstanbulspor in coming into this match?
Pendikspor have gone 6W 8D 15L in their last 29 games (0.90 PPG), while İstanbulspor have gone 3W 7D 19L in their last 29 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pendikspor at home or İstanbulspor away?
Pendikspor's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pendikspor at home: 1.07 PPG; İstanbulspor away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pendikspor and İstanbulspor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Pendikspor
0
Draws
0
İstanbulspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and İstanbulspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Pendikspor have won 2, İstanbulspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pendikspor and İstanbulspor last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2024, when Pendikspor 1-0 İstanbulspor.
Who has won more matches between Pendikspor and İstanbulspor?
Pendikspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pendikspor 50%, İstanbulspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Pendikspor) and 43% (İstanbulspor).
On the defensive side: Pendikspor have failed to score in 36% of games; İstanbulspor in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pendikspor home games / İstanbulspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pendikspor play İstanbulspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Pendikspor's recent matches and 50% of İstanbulspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Pendikspor's recent games and 43% of İstanbulspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pendikspor and İstanbulspor tend to score early?
Pendikspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, İstanbulspor in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pendikspor edge out İstanbulspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pendikspor beat İstanbulspor 1-0 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pendikspor 1.36 xG and İstanbulspor 1.33 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. İstanbulspor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pendikspor attack 0.82 / defence 1.28 against İstanbulspor attack 0.89 / defence 1.12, drawn from 29/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pendikspor 36% | Draw 30% | İstanbulspor 34%, with Pendikspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pendikspor 52%, İstanbulspor 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pendikspor's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
İstanbulspor's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pendikspor 0.90 PPG, İstanbulspor 0.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pendikspor win broke the near-deadlock. Pendikspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.