Pendikspor 0-1 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pendikspor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pendikspor and Antalyaspor meet at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 9 January 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pendikspor have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pendikspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pendikspor have posted 1W 3D 4L at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu — 0.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Antalyaspor arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Pendikspor half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pendikspor 72% and Antalyaspor 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pendikspor 56% | Antalyaspor 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 1.09 xG and Antalyaspor 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.706 / defence 1.347 | Antalyaspor attack 1.155 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.261. Pendikspor's attack strength of 0.706 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Pendikspor games / 54 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pendikspor 19% | Draw 24% | Antalyaspor 57%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 5.26 | Draw 4.17 | Antalyaspor 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Antalyaspor (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antalyaspor at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Pendikspor 62% | Antalyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pendikspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pendikspor 19% | Draw 24% | Antalyaspor 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Pendikspor 1.09 / Antalyaspor 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Pendikspor attack 0.706 / def 1.347 | Antalyaspor attack 1.155 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Pendikspor xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Antalyaspor xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pendikspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Pendikspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Tuesday 9 January 2024 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Pendikspor vs Antalyaspor?
Pendikspor 0 - 1 Antalyaspor.
Where is Pendikspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What competition is Pendikspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Pendikspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Pendikspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Pendikspor a 19% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 57% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pendikspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Pendikspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Pendikspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Antalyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pendikspor and Antalyaspor in?
Pendikspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pendikspor's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Antalyaspor's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (1.16x) against Pendikspor's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.96.
These ratings are built from 18/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
19%
5.14
24%
4.16
57%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Pendikspor xG
Total xG
3.05
1.96
Antalyaspor xG
5.14
19%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
1.77
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
14%
7.11
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
3%
36.54
19%
5.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pendikspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Pendikspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Pendikspor and 1.96 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Pendikspor vs Antalyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 18 outings, Pendikspor have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 3W 6D 9L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Pendikspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antalyaspor's form line: 6W 7D 5L from 18 games, 1.39 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-D. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Antalyaspor are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pendikspor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Pendikspor have posted 0.75 PPG from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L).
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pendikspor are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.28 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.28 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pendikspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pendikspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Pendikspor have gone 3W 6D 9L in their last 18 games (0.83 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 6W 7D 5L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pendikspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Antalyaspor's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pendikspor at home: 0.75 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Pendikspor or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pendikspor have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since January 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pendikspor
0
Draws
1
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Antalyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Pendikspor have won 1, Antalyaspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pendikspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2024, when Antalyaspor 1-2 Pendikspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pendikspor 62%, Antalyaspor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Pendikspor) and 62% (Antalyaspor).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pendikspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pendikspor play Antalyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Pendikspor's games and 62% of Antalyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pendikspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Pendikspor's recent games and 62% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pendikspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Pendikspor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Pendikspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Pendikspor 0-1 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pendikspor 1.09 xG and Antalyaspor 1.96 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pendikspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Antalyaspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pendikspor attack 0.71 / defence 1.35 against Antalyaspor attack 1.16 / defence 1.02, drawn from 18/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pendikspor 19% | Draw 24% | Antalyaspor 57%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pendikspor 56%, Antalyaspor 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pendikspor's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Antalyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.83. That form edge translated into the three points. Pendikspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.