Pendikspor 2-1 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Pendikspor at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pendikspor face Adana Demirspor.

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Analysis

Adana Demirspor make the trip to Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu to face Pendikspor in Süper Lig (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Sunday 4 February 2024 at 10:30 UK time.

Form

Pendikspor (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Pendikspor have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Adana Demirspor's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Adana Demirspor have posted 0W 6D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Pendikspor against 0.80 for Adana Demirspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Pendikspor, 1 for Adana Demirspor and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Pendikspor 0–3 Adana Demirspor — a Adana Demirspor win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Pendikspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pendikspor 70% and Adana Demirspor 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pendikspor 52% | Adana Demirspor 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Pendikspor surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Adana Demirspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Adana Demirspor surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Pendikspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 1.28 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.979 / defence 1.164 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.796 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.191. Adana Demirspor's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Data: built from Pendikspor's last 23 games and Adana Demirspor's last 59.

Result probabilities: Pendikspor 38% | Draw 33% | Adana Demirspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 2.64 | Draw 3.04 | Adana Demirspor 3.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Pendikspor at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pendikspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pendikspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Adana Demirspor 60% (last 10 away games).

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