Ümraniyespor 2-2 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ümraniyespor at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ümraniyespor vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu plays host to Ümraniyespor versus Hatayspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Tuesday 3 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ümraniyespor have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ümraniyespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ümraniyespor's home record at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu: 1W 1D 6L from 8 Süper Lig appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hatayspor (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Ümraniyespor half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hatayspor half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ümraniyespor 67% versus Hatayspor 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ümraniyespor 60% | Hatayspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ümraniyespor 1.53 xG and Hatayspor 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ümraniyespor attack 0.810 / defence 1.280 | Hatayspor attack 0.665 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.364. Hatayspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Ümraniyespor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Ümraniyespor games / 53 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ümraniyespor 46% | Draw 26% | Hatayspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Ümraniyespor 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Hatayspor 3.45. Ümraniyespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ümraniyespor at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ümraniyespor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Ümraniyespor 62% | Hatayspor 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ümraniyespor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ümraniyespor 46% | Draw 26% | Hatayspor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Ümraniyespor 1.53 / Hatayspor 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Ümraniyespor attack 0.810 / def 1.280 | Hatayspor attack 0.665 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Ümraniyespor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Ümraniyespor xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Hatayspor xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ümraniyespor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Ümraniyespor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 14:00 on Tuesday 3 January 2023 at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ümraniyespor vs Hatayspor?
Ümraniyespor 2 - 2 Hatayspor.
Where is Ümraniyespor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Ümraniyespor vs Hatayspor part of?
Ümraniyespor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ümraniyespor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Ümraniyespor a 46% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ümraniyespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ümraniyespor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ümraniyespor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Ümraniyespor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ümraniyespor and Hatayspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ümraniyespor and Hatayspor in?
Ümraniyespor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Hatayspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ümraniyespor's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Hatayspor's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.67x) against Ümraniyespor's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 15/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ümraniyespor Win
46%
2.20
26%
3.85
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Ümraniyespor xG
Total xG
2.69
1.16
Hatayspor xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
6%
16.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ümraniyespor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Ümraniyespor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Ümraniyespor and 1.16 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Ümraniyespor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ümraniyespor's recent record stands at 2W 4D 9L from 15 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Ümraniyespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hatayspor, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 8L across 15 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.67 PPG for Ümraniyespor against 1.00 for Hatayspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ümraniyespor have managed 1W 1D 6L from 8 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hatayspor's away record stands at 2W 0D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Ümraniyespor are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 0.87 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ümraniyespor have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ümraniyespor
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ümraniyespor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Ümraniyespor have gone 2W 4D 9L in their last 15 games (0.67 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 4W 3D 8L in their last 15 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ümraniyespor at home or Hatayspor away?
Hatayspor's away record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ümraniyespor at home: 0.50 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ümraniyespor
1
Draws
0
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ümraniyespor and Hatayspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Ümraniyespor have won 1, Hatayspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ümraniyespor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2023, when Hatayspor 0-3 Ümraniyespor.
Who has won more matches between Ümraniyespor and Hatayspor?
Ümraniyespor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ümraniyespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ümraniyespor 62%, Hatayspor 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Ümraniyespor) and 50% (Hatayspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ümraniyespor have failed to score in 38% of games; Hatayspor in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ümraniyespor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ümraniyespor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Ümraniyespor's recent matches and 25% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ümraniyespor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Ümraniyespor's matches and 50% of Hatayspor's.
Do Ümraniyespor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Ümraniyespor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ümraniyespor and Hatayspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ümraniyespor and Hatayspor finished level at 2-2 at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ümraniyespor 1.53 xG and Hatayspor 1.16 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hatayspor outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ümraniyespor attack 0.81 / defence 1.28 against Hatayspor attack 0.67 / defence 1.25, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ümraniyespor 46% | Draw 26% | Hatayspor 29%, with Ümraniyespor to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ümraniyespor 60%, Hatayspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Hatayspor's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ümraniyespor 0.67 PPG, Hatayspor 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ümraniyespor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.