Ümraniyespor 1-2 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ümraniyespor vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ümraniyespor and Fenerbahçe meet at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Monday 23 January 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ümraniyespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ümraniyespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ümraniyespor's home record at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu this season.
Fenerbahçe have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Fenerbahçe arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ümraniyespor lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Ümraniyespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ümraniyespor 61% versus Fenerbahçe 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ümraniyespor 56% | Fenerbahçe 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ümraniyespor 0.91 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ümraniyespor attack 0.693 / defence 1.390 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.268 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.381. Ümraniyespor's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — the away xG of 2.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 18 Ümraniyespor games / 56 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ümraniyespor 12% | Draw 18% | Fenerbahçe 71%. Fair-value odds: Ümraniyespor 8.33 | Draw 5.56 | Fenerbahçe 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ümraniyespor 60% | Fenerbahçe 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ümraniyespor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 23 Jan 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ümraniyespor 12% | Draw 18% | Fenerbahçe 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 55% | xG Ümraniyespor 0.91 / Fenerbahçe 2.44 • Poisson strength factors: Ümraniyespor attack 0.693 / def 1.390 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.268 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Ümraniyespor xG
Expected Goals
2.44
Fenerbahçe xG
55%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ümraniyespor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Ümraniyespor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 23 January 2023 at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ümraniyespor vs Fenerbahçe?
Ümraniyespor 1 - 2 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Ümraniyespor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Ümraniyespor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Ümraniyespor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ümraniyespor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Ümraniyespor a 12% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 71% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ümraniyespor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ümraniyespor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Ümraniyespor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ümraniyespor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (1 meetings): Ümraniyespor 0W | Draws 1 | Fenerbahçe 0W.
What form are Ümraniyespor and Fenerbahçe in?
Ümraniyespor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ümraniyespor's attack at 0.69x the league average against Fenerbahçe's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.27x) against Ümraniyespor's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 2.44.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
12%
8.64
18%
5.59
71%
1.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Ümraniyespor xG
Total xG
3.34
2.44
Fenerbahçe xG
8.64
12%
Home win
5.59
18%
Draw
1.42
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
9%
11.42
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
1%
98.58
29%
3.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 8.6 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.5 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ümraniyespor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Ümraniyespor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Ümraniyespor and 2.44 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Ümraniyespor vs Fenerbahçe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ümraniyespor's recent record stands at 3W 5D 10L from 18 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Ümraniyespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 12W 2D 4L across 18 games — 2.11 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.33 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ümraniyespor heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ümraniyespor have managed 1W 2D 5L from 8 games — 0.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 5W 1D 2L across 8 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ümraniyespor are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.44 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ümraniyespor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ümraniyespor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ümraniyespor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Ümraniyespor have gone 3W 5D 10L in their last 18 games (0.78 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 12W 2D 4L in their last 18 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ümraniyespor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ümraniyespor at home: 0.62 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Ümraniyespor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ümraniyespor have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ümraniyespor
1
Draws
1
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ümraniyespor and Fenerbahçe?
From 2 meetings on record, Ümraniyespor have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ümraniyespor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2023, when Ümraniyespor 1-2 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Ümraniyespor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ümraniyespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ümraniyespor 75%, Fenerbahçe 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Ümraniyespor and 62% for Fenerbahçe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe in 38%; Fenerbahçe in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ümraniyespor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ümraniyespor play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Ümraniyespor's games and 38% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ümraniyespor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Ümraniyespor's matches and 62% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Ümraniyespor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Ümraniyespor have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Ümraniyespor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Ümraniyespor 1-2 at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ümraniyespor 0.91 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.44 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ümraniyespor attack 0.69 / defence 1.39 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.27 / defence 0.81, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ümraniyespor 12% | Draw 18% | Fenerbahçe 71%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ümraniyespor 56%, Fenerbahçe 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.