Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 23 as Konyaspor welcome Kasımpaşa to Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor's home record at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kasımpaşa are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Konyaspor: 4 wins from 10 previous clashes against 0 for Kasımpaşa, with 6 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Konyaspor and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 65% versus Kasımpaşa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 57% | Kasımpaşa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.10 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.817 / defence 1.053 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.971 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Data: 37 Konyaspor games / 37 Kasımpaşa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 32% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 40%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Kasımpaşa 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Konyaspor dominate the H2H record, yet Kasımpaşa are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Konyaspor 40% | Kasımpaşa 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 32% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Konyaspor 1.10 / Kasımpaşa 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.817 / def 1.053 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.971 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Kasımpaşa xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 28 February 2027 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
Where is Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 32% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (10 meetings): Konyaspor 4W | Draws 6 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.82) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
32%
3.08
28%
3.58
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.34
1.25
Kasımpaşa xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
9%
10.71
13%
7.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.25 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 10W 10D 17L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 9W 13D 15L from 37 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.08 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.26 PPG from 19 outings (6W 6D 7L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 6D 9L from 19 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Konyaspor are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 0.97 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Early Season
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 10W 10D 17L in their last 37 games (1.08 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 9W 13D 15L in their last 37 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.26 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Konyaspor
6
Draws
0
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 4, Kasımpaşa have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Konyaspor 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 53%, Kasımpaşa 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Konyaspor) and 58% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Konyaspor have failed to score in 26% of games; Kasımpaşa in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Konyaspor's games and 63% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Konyaspor's recent games and 58% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.