Konyaspor 3-3 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 39% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Konyaspor welcome Kasımpaşa to Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 19 January 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Konyaspor have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Konyaspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kasımpaşa stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 3W 6D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Konyaspor 0.90 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Konyaspor's games and 60% of Kasımpaşa's (from Konyaspor's last 10 home games and Kasımpaşa's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Konyaspor: 4 wins from 6 H2H matches against 0 for Kasımpaşa, with 2 draws.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2024, ended Konyaspor 3–2 Kasımpaşa — a Konyaspor win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Konyaspor and goals — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 3.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 55% versus Kasımpaşa 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 41% | Kasımpaşa 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Konyaspor surrender their half-time lead 57% of the time, while Kasımpaşa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.63 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.935 / defence 1.108 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.151 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.595 / away 1.161. Data: built from Konyaspor's last 56 games and Kasımpaşa's last 56.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 39% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 33%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.55 | Draw 3.55 | Kasımpaşa 3.06. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.63 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Konyaspor 4 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Konyaspor's last 10 home games and Kasımpaşa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Konyaspor 70% (last 10 home games) | Kasımpaşa 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 20 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 19 January 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 39% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Konyaspor 1.63 / Kasımpaşa 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.935 / def 1.108 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.151 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.595 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Kasımpaşa xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa FAQs
What time does Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Konyaspor 3 - 3 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 20) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 39% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.94) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Konyaspor's last 56 games and Kasımpaşa's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
39%
2.55
28%
3.55
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
3.11
1.48
Kasımpaşa xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
9%
11.22
6%
15.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.8 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.48 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 14W 19D 23L record — W-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 20W 17D 19L from 56 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.09 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.22 PPG from their last 27 home games (8W 9D 10L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 10W 8D 9L from their last 27 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Konyaspor are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.54 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 64%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Konyaspor (Home) vs Kasımpaşa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Konyaspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa Form FAQs
What form are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 14W 19D 23L in their last 56 games (1.09 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 20W 17D 19L in their last 56 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Kasımpaşa's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.22 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 4 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Konyaspor
6
Draws
0
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Konyaspor have won 4, Kasımpaşa have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: Kasımpaşa 0-0 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 58% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 56%, Kasımpaşa 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Konyaspor) and 67% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Konyaspor's games and 67% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Konyaspor's recent games and 67% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 78% of Kasımpaşa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, as Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa drew 3-3 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.63 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.48 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Konyaspor beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kasımpaşa outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.11 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.15 / defence 1.09, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 39% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 33%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 41%, Kasımpaşa 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.09 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.