Konyaspor 3-0 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Göztepe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Göztepe travel to Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu to take on Konyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 April 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Konyaspor — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Konyaspor have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Göztepe's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Konyaspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Konyaspor, 0 for Göztepe and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 2–0 with Konyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Konyaspor in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Göztepe in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 53% and Göztepe 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 50% | Göztepe 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.91 xG and Göztepe 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 1.031 / defence 0.914 | Göztepe attack 0.925 / defence 1.495. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.260. Göztepe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.495 — this is suppressing Konyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Konyaspor games / 30 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 57% | Draw 23% | Göztepe 21%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Göztepe 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Konyaspor (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 20% | Göztepe 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 57% | Draw 23% | Göztepe 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Konyaspor 1.91 / Göztepe 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 1.031 / def 0.914 | Göztepe attack 0.925 / def 1.495 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Göztepe xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Göztepe kick off?
Konyaspor vs Göztepe kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Göztepe?
Konyaspor 3 - 0 Göztepe.
Where is Konyaspor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Göztepe part of?
Konyaspor vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 57% chance of winning, Göztepe a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Konyaspor and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Göztepe?
Record (1 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Göztepe 0W.
What form are Konyaspor and Göztepe in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Göztepe (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Konyaspor's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Göztepe's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
57%
1.76
23%
4.41
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.97
1.07
Göztepe xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
3%
32.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.4 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.07 for Göztepe, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Göztepe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Konyaspor come into this having played 30 games, going 16W 7D 7L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Göztepe sit at 0.90 PPG from 30 outings (7W 6D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Konyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Göztepe — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Konyaspor's home form reads 9W 4D 1L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Göztepe have taken 0.93 points per game from 14 outings (3W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Konyaspor are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.20 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe in 70%.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Current Season
Göztepe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 16W 7D 7L in their last 30 games (1.83 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 7W 6D 17L in their last 30 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Göztepe away?
Konyaspor's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 2.21 PPG; Göztepe away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Göztepe in 3%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2022, when Konyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Konyaspor
2
Draws
1
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Göztepe?
From 6 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 3, Göztepe have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Konyaspor 0-0 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Göztepe?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Konyaspor at 36%, Göztepe at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 36% for Konyaspor and 86% for Göztepe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 36% of Konyaspor's games and 100% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 36% of Konyaspor's matches and 86% of Göztepe's.
Do Konyaspor and Göztepe tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Konyaspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Göztepe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Göztepe 3-0 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.91 xG and Göztepe 1.07 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Konyaspor beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Göztepe landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.03 / defence 0.91 against Göztepe attack 0.93 / defence 1.50, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 57% | Draw 23% | Göztepe 21%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 50%, Göztepe 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Göztepe's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.