Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Konyaspor face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium plays host to Konyaspor versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 31 January 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Konyaspor (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Fenerbahçe have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Fenerbahçe are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Konyaspor have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Fenerbahçe in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Fenerbahçe hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 8 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 2–4 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 8 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 54% versus Fenerbahçe 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 50% | Fenerbahçe 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 0.85 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.689 / defence 0.992 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.038 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Konyaspor's attack strength of 0.689 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.774 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Konyaspor games / 44 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 24% | Draw 29% | Fenerbahçe 47%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Fenerbahçe 2.13. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 20% | Fenerbahçe 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 24% | Draw 29% | Fenerbahçe 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Konyaspor 0.85 / Fenerbahçe 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.689 / def 0.992 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.038 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Fenerbahçe xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 31 January 2027 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
Where is Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 24% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (10 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Fenerbahçe 8W.
What form are Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.69) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.04x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
24%
4.09
29%
3.49
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.14
1.29
Fenerbahçe xG
4.09
24%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
7%
14.85
20%
4.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 15.2 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.29 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 12W 12D 20L from 44 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 26W 12D 6L across 44 games — 2.05 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Konyaspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 7W 7D 8L from 22 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 12W 6D 4L across 22 trips, a 1.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.30 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 12W 12D 20L in their last 44 games (1.09 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 26W 12D 6L in their last 44 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.27 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Fenerbahçe go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 7-1 on 10 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Konyaspor
1
Draws
8
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Fenerbahçe 4-2 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 46%, Fenerbahçe 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Konyaspor) and 64% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 46%; Konyaspor have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 46% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Konyaspor's recent games and 64% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.