Kayserispor 0-2 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Kasımpaşa travel to RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu to take on Kayserispor in Süper Lig (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kayserispor stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Kayserispor's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Kasımpaşa have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Kasımpaşa's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kasımpaşa are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Kayserispor's games and 80% of Kasımpaşa's (from Kayserispor's last 10 home games and Kasımpaşa's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Kayserispor have won 3, Kasımpaşa 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Kayserispor 4–3 Kasımpaşa — a Kayserispor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kayserispor trading profile (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa trading profile (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 53% versus Kasımpaşa 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 56% | Kasımpaşa 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.52 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.915 / defence 1.040 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.243 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.182. Kasımpaşa have an above-average attack rating of 1.243, which lifts their away xG to 1.53. Data: built from Kayserispor's last 66 games and Kasımpaşa's last 66.
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 36% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 36%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.77 | Draw 3.65 | Kasımpaşa 2.74. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 27%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.52 / 1.53) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Kayserispor 36% and Kasımpaşa 36%, with the draw at 27%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Kayserispor's last 10 home games and Kasımpaşa's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kayserispor 60% (last 10 home games) | Kasımpaşa 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 31 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 36% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Kayserispor 1.52 / Kasımpaşa 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.915 / def 1.040 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.243 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Kayserispor and Kasımpaşa level at 36% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Kasımpaşa xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa FAQs
What time does Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Wednesday 3 April 2024 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa?
Kayserispor 0 - 2 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 31) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 36% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Kayserispor and Kasımpaşa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kayserispor's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kayserispor's last 66 games and Kasımpaşa's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
36%
2.77
27%
3.65
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
3.05
1.53
Kasımpaşa xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
8%
12.77
8%
12.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.0 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.53 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Kayserispor have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 25W 14D 27L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 24W 14D 28L from 66 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kayserispor on 1.35 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kayserispor have posted 1.61 PPG from their last 33 home games (15W 8D 10L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 11W 7D 15L from their last 33 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kayserispor are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.48 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 62%.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Current Season
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Kayserispor (Home) vs Kasımpaşa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kayserispor
Current Season
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
❓ Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa Form FAQs
What form are Kayserispor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 25W 14D 27L in their last 66 games (1.35 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 24W 14D 28L in their last 66 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.61 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Kayserispor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Kayserispor
1
Draws
3
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Kasımpaşa?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kayserispor have won 6, Kasımpaşa have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: Kasımpaşa 2-0 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Kasımpaşa?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 48%, Kasımpaşa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Kayserispor) and 64% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Kasımpaşa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kayserispor vs Kasımpaşa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kayserispor and Kasımpaşa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 54% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kayserispor and Kasımpaşa matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Kayserispor's matches and 64% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Kayserispor and Kasımpaşa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 56% of Kasımpaşa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kayserispor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Kayserispor 0-2 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.52 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.53 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Kayserispor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.92 / defence 1.04 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.24 / defence 1.10, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 36% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 36%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 56%, Kasımpaşa 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.35 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.