Kayserispor 0-4 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kayserispor face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fenerbahçe make the trip to RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu to face Kayserispor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Kayserispor's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Fenerbahçe (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Fenerbahçe are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Fenerbahçe hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 7 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.8 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 2–4 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 4.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Kayserispor half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 50% versus Fenerbahçe 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 48% | Fenerbahçe 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.05 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.753 / defence 1.253 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.411 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.150. Kayserispor's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.411 — the away xG of 2.03 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 Kayserispor games / 64 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 17% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 58%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 5.88 | Draw 4.00 | Fenerbahçe 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 50% | Fenerbahçe 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 17% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Kayserispor 1.05 / Fenerbahçe 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.753 / def 1.253 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.411 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
2.03
Fenerbahçe xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe?
Kayserispor 0 - 4 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 17% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 58% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (9 meetings): Kayserispor 0W | Draws 2 | Fenerbahçe 7W.
What form are Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kayserispor's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.41x) against Kayserispor's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 2.03.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
17%
6.00
25%
3.94
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
3.08
2.03
Fenerbahçe xG
6.00
17%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
13%
7.63
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
2%
45.79
20%
4.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Kayserispor and 2.03 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Kayserispor have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 15W 23D 26L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Fenerbahçe's form line: 44W 15D 5L from 64 games, 2.30 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Fenerbahçe are the form team by 1.24 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kayserispor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Kayserispor have posted 1.32 PPG from 31 outings (11W 8D 12L).
On the road, Fenerbahçe have gone 20W 8D 3L from 31 away games — 2.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kayserispor are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.38 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe in 62%.
Last 64 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Current Season
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 15W 23D 26L in their last 64 games (1.06 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 44W 15D 5L in their last 64 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.32 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.19 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Fenerbahçe have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 0-4 on 2 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kayserispor
2
Draws
8
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Kayserispor 0-4 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 48%, Fenerbahçe 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Kayserispor) and 61% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 36%; Kayserispor have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 58% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Kayserispor's matches and 61% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Kayserispor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Kayserispor 0-4 at RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.05 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.03 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Kayserispor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Fenerbahçe outscored their 2.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.75 / defence 1.25 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.41 / defence 0.98, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 17% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 58%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 48%, Fenerbahçe 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.06. Form held, and they took the win. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.