Kayserispor 1-0 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kayserispor vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 22 as Kayserispor welcome Başakşehir to RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Thursday 2 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kayserispor stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Başakşehir's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Kayserispor's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kayserispor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Başakşehir in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Kayserispor, 1 for Başakşehir and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 0–2 with Başakşehir winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Kayserispor trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Başakşehir trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 60% versus Başakşehir 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 60% | Başakşehir 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.38 xG and Başakşehir 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 1.071 / defence 1.109 | Başakşehir attack 1.096 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.416. Başakşehir's defence strength of 0.779 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Kayserispor games / 58 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 31% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 45%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Başakşehir 2.22. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 60% | Başakşehir 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Thursday 2 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 31% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Kayserispor 1.38 / Başakşehir 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 1.071 / def 1.109 | Başakşehir attack 1.096 / def 0.779 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Başakşehir xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Kayserispor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 2 February 2023 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Başakşehir?
Kayserispor 1 - 0 Başakşehir.
Where is Kayserispor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Başakşehir part of?
Kayserispor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 31% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Kayserispor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Başakşehir?
Record (3 meetings): Kayserispor 2W | Draws 0 | Başakşehir 1W.
What form are Kayserispor and Başakşehir in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Başakşehir (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kayserispor's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
31%
3.28
24%
4.09
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
3.10
1.72
Başakşehir xG
3.28
31%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
18%
5.59
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
5%
18.32
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.72 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 21W 13D 24L from 58 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 31W 12D 15L across 58 games — 1.81 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Başakşehir by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kayserispor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 15W 4D 9L from 28 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Kayserispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 11W 9D 8L across 28 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Kayserispor are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.52 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kayserispor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Başakşehir in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 21W 13D 24L in their last 58 games (1.31 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 31W 12D 15L in their last 58 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Başakşehir away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.75 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jan 2026, when Başakşehir won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kayserispor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Kayserispor
3
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 5, Başakşehir have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Kayserispor 0-3 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Başakşehir?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 54%, Başakşehir 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Kayserispor) and 46% (Başakşehir). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Kayserispor's games and 61% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kayserispor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Kayserispor's matches and 46% of Başakşehir's.
Do Kayserispor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kayserispor defy the odds to beat Başakşehir 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Başakşehir 1-0 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.38 xG and Başakşehir 1.72 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.07 / defence 1.11 against Başakşehir attack 1.10 / defence 0.78, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 31% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 45%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Kayserispor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 60%, Başakşehir 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Başakşehir's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Kayserispor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.