Kasımpaşa 0-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 39%, yet in-form Trabzonspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor meet at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Monday 18 August 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Kasımpaşa's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa's home record at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Trabzonspor (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Trabzonspor are 0.60 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Kasımpaşa, 2 for Trabzonspor and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Kasımpaşa half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 70% and Trabzonspor 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 68% | Trabzonspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.47 xG and Trabzonspor 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.111 / defence 1.120 | Trabzonspor attack 0.987 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.252. Data: 37 Kasımpaşa games / 37 Trabzonspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 39% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Trabzonspor 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Trabzonspor (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 100% | Trabzonspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 18 Aug 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 39% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.47 / Trabzonspor 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.111 / def 1.120 | Trabzonspor attack 0.987 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Trabzonspor xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 18 August 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Kasımpaşa 0 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 39% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor?
Record (7 meetings): Kasımpaşa 2W | Draws 3 | Trabzonspor 2W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 1.11x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (0.99x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
39%
2.57
26%
3.87
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.85
1.38
Trabzonspor xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
10%
10.24
8%
12.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.38 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, Kasımpaşa have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 11W 14D 12L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Trabzonspor's form line: 14W 12D 11L from 37 games, 1.46 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.46 for Trabzonspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Kasımpaşa have posted 1.22 PPG from 18 outings (5W 7D 6L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 3W 7D 8L from 18 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.46 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.59 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Trabzonspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 11W 14D 12L in their last 37 games (1.27 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 14W 12D 11L in their last 37 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Trabzonspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.22 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 1-5 on 1 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kasımpaşa
4
Draws
4
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Kasımpaşa 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Kasımpaşa, 56% for Trabzonspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Kasımpaşa) and 44% (Trabzonspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor in 39%; Trabzonspor in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Kasımpaşa's games and 56% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 44% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Trabzonspor defy the odds to beat Kasımpaşa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Kasımpaşa 0-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.47 xG and Trabzonspor 1.38 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kasımpaşa fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.11 / defence 1.12 against Trabzonspor attack 0.99 / defence 0.93, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 39% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 35%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Trabzonspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 68%, Trabzonspor 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.27 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.