Kasımpaşa 1-2 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Konyaspor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Kasımpaşa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 April 2023, 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kasımpaşa at 1.40 PPG versus Konyaspor's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kasımpaşa register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Konyaspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Konyaspor 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Konyaspor trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 60% versus Konyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 60% | Konyaspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.73 xG and Konyaspor 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.060 / defence 1.026 | Konyaspor attack 1.132 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.704 / away 1.328. Data: 67 Kasımpaşa games / 67 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 42% | Draw 23% | Konyaspor 34%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | Konyaspor 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 80% | Konyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 42% | Draw 23% | Konyaspor 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.73 / Konyaspor 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.060 / def 1.026 | Konyaspor attack 1.132 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.704 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Konyaspor xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 2 Konyaspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 42% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor?
Record (3 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 3 | Konyaspor 0W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 1.06x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
42%
2.36
23%
4.30
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.27
1.54
Konyaspor xG
2.36
42%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
9%
11.05
6%
16.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.54 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 67 games, going 24W 14D 29L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.60 PPG from 67 outings (29W 20D 18L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.28 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 13W 7D 13L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 1.39 points per game from 33 outings (12W 10D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.52 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Konyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 24W 14D 29L in their last 67 games (1.28 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 29W 20D 18L in their last 67 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Konyaspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.39 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kasımpaşa
6
Draws
4
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Konyaspor have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Konyaspor 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kasımpaşa at 73%, Konyaspor at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Kasımpaşa and 64% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Kasımpaşa's games and 64% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 64% of Konyaspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Konyaspor defy the odds to beat Kasımpaşa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Kasımpaşa 1-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.73 xG and Konyaspor 1.54 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.06 / defence 1.03 against Konyaspor attack 1.13 / defence 0.96, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 42% | Draw 23% | Konyaspor 34%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 60%, Konyaspor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.28 PPG, Konyaspor 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.