Kasımpaşa 3-4 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kasımpaşa face Kayserispor.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa host Kayserispor at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 12). Kick-off is Saturday 11 November 2023 at 10:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kasımpaşa stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kayserispor — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Kayserispor have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kasımpaşa at 1.50 PPG versus Kayserispor's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Kasımpaşa's last 10 home games and Kayserispor's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Kasımpaşa, 2 for Kayserispor and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 19 Apr 2023, ended Kasımpaşa 0–0 Kayserispor — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Kayserispor in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 57% versus Kayserispor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 60% | Kayserispor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.79 xG and Kayserispor 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.069 / defence 1.221 | Kayserispor attack 0.943 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.241. Kasımpaşa's defence rating of 1.221 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kayserispor's projected output up. Data: built from Kasımpaşa's last 47 games and Kayserispor's last 47.
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 44% | Draw 27% | Kayserispor 29%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.25 | Draw 3.76 | Kayserispor 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.79 / 1.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Kasımpaşa's last 10 home games and Kayserispor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kasımpaşa 70% (last 10 home games) | Kayserispor 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 12 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 44% | Draw 27% | Kayserispor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Kasımpaşa 1.79 / Kayserispor 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.069 / def 1.221 | Kayserispor attack 0.943 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Kayserispor xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor FAQs
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor?
Kasımpaşa 3 - 4 Kayserispor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 12) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 44% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 1.07x the league average against Kayserispor's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kayserispor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kasımpaşa's last 47 games and Kayserispor's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
44%
2.25
27%
3.76
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.22
1.43
Kayserispor xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
5%
20.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.43 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 47 games, going 17W 10D 20L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Kayserispor sit at 1.47 PPG from 47 outings (20W 9D 18L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.30 PPG, Kayserispor on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 10W 4D 9L across their last 23 home games, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Kayserispor have taken 1.13 points per game from their last 23 away games (7W 5D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.45 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
Kasımpaşa (Home) vs Kayserispor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor Form FAQs
What form are Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 17W 10D 20L in their last 47 games (1.30 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 20W 9D 18L in their last 47 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Kayserispor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.48 PPG; Kayserispor away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Kayserispor specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kasımpaşa
1
Draws
6
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kasımpaşa have won 3, Kayserispor have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: Kasımpaşa 2-0 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kasımpaşa at 74%, Kayserispor at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Kasımpaşa and 65% for Kayserispor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Kayserispor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Kasımpaşa's games and 61% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 65% of Kayserispor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Kayserispor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 78% of Kayserispor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kayserispor defy the odds to beat Kasımpaşa 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Kasımpaşa 3-4 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.79 xG and Kayserispor 1.43 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Kasımpaşa beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kayserispor outscored their 1.43 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.07 / defence 1.22 against Kayserispor attack 0.94 / defence 1.13, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 44% | Draw 27% | Kayserispor 29%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Kayserispor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 60%, Kayserispor 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Kayserispor's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.30 PPG, Kayserispor 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kayserispor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.