Kasımpaşa 1-2 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa host Fenerbahçe at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 28 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 4W 3D 3L at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fenerbahçe have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kasımpaşa 1.80 PPG, Fenerbahçe 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Fenerbahçe 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Fenerbahçe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 62% and Fenerbahçe 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 50% | Fenerbahçe 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.46 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.072 / defence 1.262 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.943 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.200. Data: 26 Kasımpaşa games / 26 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 38% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 36%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Fenerbahçe 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 80% | Fenerbahçe 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 28 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 38% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.46 / Fenerbahçe 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.072 / def 1.262 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.943 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Fenerbahçe xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 28 February 2022 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 2 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 38% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe?
Record (1 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 0 | Fenerbahçe 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 1.07x the league average against Fenerbahçe's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
38%
2.66
26%
3.81
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.89
1.43
Fenerbahçe xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
9%
11.07
8%
11.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.43 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 26 games, going 7W 8D 11L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 1.65 PPG from 26 outings (12W 7D 7L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 5W 4D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 1.46 points per game from 13 outings (5W 4D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 1.54 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Fenerbahçe in 69%.
Last 26 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 7W 8D 11L in their last 26 games (1.12 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 12W 7D 7L in their last 26 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.46 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2022, when Fenerbahçe won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
8
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Fenerbahçe 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kasımpaşa at 69%, Fenerbahçe at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Kasımpaşa) and 46% (Fenerbahçe).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Kasımpaşa's games and 77% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 46% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fenerbahçe defy the odds to beat Kasımpaşa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Kasımpaşa 1-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.46 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.43 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.07 / defence 1.26 against Fenerbahçe attack 0.94 / defence 1.14, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 38% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 36%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Fenerbahçe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 50%, Fenerbahçe 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.