Kasımpaşa 4-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alanyaspor make the trip to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to face Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Wednesday 4 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Kasımpaşa (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Alanyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Kasımpaşa, 1.30 for Alanyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Alanyaspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Kasımpaşa 0W, Alanyaspor 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Alanyaspor — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 60% and Alanyaspor 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 58% | Alanyaspor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.57 xG and Alanyaspor 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.840 / defence 1.235 | Alanyaspor attack 0.970 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.373. Alanyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing Kasımpaşa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Kasımpaşa games / 54 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 36% | Draw 24% | Alanyaspor 40%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Alanyaspor 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 60% | Alanyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 36% | Draw 24% | Alanyaspor 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.57 / Alanyaspor 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.840 / def 1.235 | Alanyaspor attack 0.970 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Alanyaspor xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Wednesday 4 January 2023 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Kasımpaşa 4 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 36% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor?
Record (2 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 1 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (0.97x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
36%
2.74
24%
4.21
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.21
1.65
Alanyaspor xG
2.74
36%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
7%
14.22
8%
12.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.65 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 53 games, going 19W 11D 23L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.55 PPG from 53 outings (23W 13D 17L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.55 for Alanyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 9W 5D 12L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 1.38 points per game from 26 outings (10W 6D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.70 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Alanyaspor in 60%.
Last 53 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 19W 11D 23L in their last 53 games (1.28 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 23W 13D 17L in their last 53 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Alanyaspor away?
Alanyaspor's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.23 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kasımpaşa have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kasımpaşa won 4-1 on 4 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
1
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 7, Alanyaspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Kasımpaşa 1-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 69%, Alanyaspor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Kasımpaşa and 58% for Alanyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Kasımpaşa's games and 58% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 58% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kasımpaşa run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Alanyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Alanyaspor 4-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.57 xG and Alanyaspor 1.65 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Kasımpaşa beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.84 / defence 1.24 against Alanyaspor attack 0.97 / defence 1.23, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 36% | Draw 24% | Alanyaspor 40%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 58%, Alanyaspor 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.28 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.