Hatayspor 1-3 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yeni Hatay Stadyumu plays host to Hatayspor versus Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Wednesday 22 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 2L across 8 games at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Konyaspor (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Konyaspor have posted 3W 3D 2L from 8 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Hatayspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 47% versus Konyaspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 53% | Konyaspor 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.31 xG and Konyaspor 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 1.016 / defence 1.228 | Konyaspor attack 1.137 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.160. Data: 17 Hatayspor games / 17 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 30% | Draw 26% | Konyaspor 44%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Konyaspor 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 62% | Konyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 30% | Draw 26% | Konyaspor 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Hatayspor 1.31 / Konyaspor 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 1.016 / def 1.228 | Konyaspor attack 1.137 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Konyaspor xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Konyaspor?
Hatayspor 1 - 3 Konyaspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 30% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Hatayspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Konyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hatayspor and Konyaspor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hatayspor's attack at 1.02x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.14x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
30%
3.31
26%
3.85
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.94
1.62
Konyaspor xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
6%
16.74
12%
8.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.62 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hatayspor come into this having played 17 games, going 9W 2D 6L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.94 PPG from 17 outings (9W 6D 2L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Hatayspor against 1.94 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Hatayspor's home form reads 5W 1D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 1.50 points per game from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Konyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hatayspor are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.65 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Konyaspor in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 9W 2D 6L in their last 17 games (1.71 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 9W 6D 2L in their last 17 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Hatayspor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Hatayspor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 0-3 on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Hatayspor
1
Draws
6
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Konyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 1, Konyaspor have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Hatayspor 2-3 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 62%, Konyaspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Hatayspor) and 38% (Konyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Hatayspor's games and 50% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Hatayspor's matches and 38% of Konyaspor's.
Do Hatayspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Hatayspor 1-3 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.31 xG and Konyaspor 1.62 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Konyaspor outscored their 1.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 1.02 / defence 1.23 against Konyaspor attack 1.14 / defence 1.08, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 30% | Draw 26% | Konyaspor 44%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 53%, Konyaspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 1.71 PPG, Konyaspor 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.