Giresunspor 2-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Giresunspor at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Giresunspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Giresunspor host Rizespor at Çotanak Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 October 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Giresunspor — All Games: 1W 2D 5L from 8 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.62 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.38 goals per game and conceding 1.12 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Giresunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Çotanak Stadyumu, Giresunspor have gone 0W 2D 2L this season (4 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Rizespor have recorded 0W 1D 7L from 8 outings — 0.12 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 2.38 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.38 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rizespor have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Giresunspor have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (0.62 vs 0.12) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Giresunspor in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
Rizespor in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Giresunspor 25% versus Rizespor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Giresunspor 12% | Rizespor 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Giresunspor 1.18 xG and Rizespor 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Giresunspor attack 0.604 / defence 1.042 | Rizespor attack 0.741 / defence 1.604. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.118. Giresunspor's attack strength of 0.604 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.604 — this is suppressing Giresunspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Giresunspor games / 8 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Giresunspor 43% | Draw 30% | Rizespor 27%. Fair-value odds: Giresunspor 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Rizespor 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Giresunspor are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Giresunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Giresunspor 25% | Rizespor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Giresunspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Çotanak Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Giresunspor 43% | Draw 30% | Rizespor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Giresunspor 1.18 / Rizespor 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Giresunspor attack 0.604 / def 1.042 | Rizespor attack 0.741 / def 1.604 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Giresunspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Giresunspor xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Rizespor xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Giresunspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Giresunspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Giresunspor vs Rizespor?
Giresunspor 2 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Giresunspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What competition is Giresunspor vs Rizespor part of?
Giresunspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Giresunspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Giresunspor a 43% chance of winning, Rizespor a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Giresunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Giresunspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Giresunspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Giresunspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Rizespor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Giresunspor and Rizespor in?
Giresunspor (all comps): 1W-2D-5L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 0.38 / GA 1.12 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Rizespor (all comps): 0W-1D-7L in 8 | 0.12 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 2.38 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Giresunspor's attack at 0.60x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 1.60x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Giresunspor's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Giresunspor Win
43%
2.31
30%
3.34
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Giresunspor xG
Total xG
2.05
0.86
Rizespor xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
8%
12.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 11.2 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Giresunspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Giresunspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Giresunspor and 0.86 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Giresunspor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Giresunspor come into this having played 8 games, going 1W 2D 5L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W. The sample for Giresunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 0.12 PPG from 8 outings (0W 1D 7L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Giresunspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Rizespor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Giresunspor's home form reads 0W 2D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 0.00 points per game from 4 outings (0W 0D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Giresunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Giresunspor are averaging 0.38 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 0.75 scored and 2.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Giresunspor have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Giresunspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Giresunspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Giresunspor have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 games (0.62 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 0W 1D 7L in their last 8 (0.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Giresunspor at home or Rizespor away?
Giresunspor's home record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Giresunspor at home: 0.50 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Giresunspor and Rizespor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Giresunspor
0
Draws
0
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Rizespor?
From 2 meetings on record, Giresunspor have won 2, Rizespor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Giresunspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2022, when Rizespor 1-2 Giresunspor.
Who has won more matches between Giresunspor and Rizespor?
Giresunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Giresunspor 25%, Rizespor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Giresunspor) and 100% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Giresunspor have failed to score in 75% of games; Rizespor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Giresunspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Giresunspor play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Giresunspor's recent matches and 50% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Giresunspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Giresunspor's recent games and 100% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Giresunspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Giresunspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Giresunspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Giresunspor beat Rizespor 2-0 at Çotanak Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Giresunspor 1.18 xG and Rizespor 0.86 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Giresunspor beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rizespor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Giresunspor attack 0.60 / defence 1.04 against Rizespor attack 0.74 / defence 1.60, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Giresunspor 43% | Draw 30% | Rizespor 27%, with Giresunspor to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Giresunspor 12%, Rizespor 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Giresunspor's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not.
Rizespor's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Giresunspor arrived the stronger side — 0.62 PPG against 0.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Giresunspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.