Giresunspor 2-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Giresunspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 38 as Giresunspor welcome Antalyaspor to Çotanak Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 7 June 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Giresunspor have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Giresunspor's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Çotanak Stadyumu this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Antalyaspor — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Antalyaspor have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Giresunspor) versus 1.30 (Antalyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Giresunspor, 2 for Antalyaspor and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Giresunspor trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Giresunspor 55% versus Antalyaspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Giresunspor 49% | Antalyaspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Giresunspor 1.35 xG and Antalyaspor 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Giresunspor attack 0.924 / defence 1.231 | Antalyaspor attack 0.740 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.436. Data: 73 Giresunspor games / 73 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Giresunspor 38% | Draw 26% | Antalyaspor 36%. Fair-value odds: Giresunspor 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Antalyaspor 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Giresunspor as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Giresunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Giresunspor 60% | Antalyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Çotanak Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Jun 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Giresunspor 38% | Draw 26% | Antalyaspor 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Giresunspor 1.35 / Antalyaspor 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Giresunspor attack 0.924 / def 1.231 | Antalyaspor attack 0.740 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Giresunspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Giresunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Antalyaspor xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 7 June 2023 at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Giresunspor 2 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What competition is Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Giresunspor a 38% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Giresunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Giresunspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Antalyaspor?
Record (3 meetings): Giresunspor 0W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 2W.
What form are Giresunspor and Antalyaspor in?
Giresunspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Giresunspor's attack rating (0.92) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Giresunspor's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Giresunspor Win
38%
2.63
26%
3.84
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Giresunspor xG
Total xG
2.66
1.31
Antalyaspor xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
10%
9.71
9%
10.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Giresunspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Giresunspor and 1.31 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 73 outings, Giresunspor have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 21W 19D 33L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Antalyaspor's form line: 27W 19D 27L from 73 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Giresunspor on 1.12 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Giresunspor have posted 1.25 PPG from 36 outings (12W 9D 15L).
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 9W 10D 17L from 36 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Giresunspor are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.37 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Giresunspor
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Giresunspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Giresunspor have gone 21W 19D 33L in their last 73 games (1.12 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 27W 19D 27L in their last 73 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Giresunspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Giresunspor's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Giresunspor at home: 1.25 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Mar 2022, when Antalyaspor won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Giresunspor's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Giresunspor
1
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Antalyaspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Giresunspor have won 1, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Giresunspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 7 June 2023, when Giresunspor 2-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Giresunspor and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Giresunspor 56%, Antalyaspor 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Giresunspor) and 42% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Giresunspor have failed to score in 28% of games; Antalyaspor in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Giresunspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Giresunspor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Giresunspor's recent matches and 44% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Giresunspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Giresunspor's recent games and 42% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Giresunspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Giresunspor have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Giresunspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Giresunspor beat Antalyaspor 2-0 at Çotanak Stadyumu, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Giresunspor 1.35 xG and Antalyaspor 1.31 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Antalyaspor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Giresunspor attack 0.92 / defence 1.23 against Antalyaspor attack 0.74 / defence 0.91, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Giresunspor 38% | Draw 26% | Antalyaspor 36%, with Giresunspor to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Giresunspor 49%, Antalyaspor 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Giresunspor's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Giresunspor 1.12 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Giresunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Giresunspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.