Gaziantep FK 1-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 41%, yet the head-to-head data favours Kayserispor — this Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kayserispor make the trip to Kalyon Stadyumu to face Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Saturday 3 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Gaziantep FK's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gaziantep FK's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Kayserispor (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Kayserispor away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Gaziantep FK against 0.70 for Kayserispor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Kayserispor have the stronger record — 3 wins to Gaziantep FK's 0, with 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Gaziantep FK 0–2 Kayserispor — a Kayserispor win.
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Gaziantep FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Kayserispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 45% versus Kayserispor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 60% | Kayserispor 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.50 xG and Kayserispor 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.811 / defence 1.140 | Kayserispor attack 0.903 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.189. Kayserispor's defence rating of 1.241 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Gaziantep FK's projected output up. Data: built from Gaziantep FK's last 58 games and Kayserispor's last 59.
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 41% | Draw 30% | Kayserispor 29%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.43 | Draw 3.33 | Kayserispor 3.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gaziantep FK are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Gaziantep FK's last 10 home games and Kayserispor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Gaziantep FK 40% (last 10 home games) | Kayserispor 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 24 | Venue: Kalyon Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 41% | Draw 30% | Kayserispor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Gaziantep FK 1.50 / Kayserispor 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.811 / def 1.140 | Kayserispor attack 0.903 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Kayserispor xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor FAQs
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor?
Gaziantep FK 1 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 24) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 41% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gaziantep FK's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Kayserispor's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Kayserispor's attack (0.90x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from Gaziantep FK's last 58 games and Kayserispor's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
41%
2.43
30%
3.33
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.72
1.22
Kayserispor xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
6%
15.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.22 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gaziantep FK's recent record stands at 12W 12D 34L from 58 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Kayserispor, meanwhile, have gone 23W 11D 24L across 58 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kayserispor by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gaziantep FK heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gaziantep FK have managed 6W 7D 15L from their last 28 home games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kayserispor's away record stands at 9W 5D 14L across their last 28 away games, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gaziantep FK are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.43 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
Gaziantep FK (Home) vs Kayserispor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor Form FAQs
What form are Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 12W 12D 34L in their last 58 games (0.83 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 23W 11D 24L in their last 58 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Kayserispor away?
Kayserispor's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 0.89 PPG; Kayserispor away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 20 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Gaziantep FK have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kayserispor won Kayserispor 3-0 Gaziantep FK on 30 Apr 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gaziantep FK have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gaziantep FK
4
Draws
3
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gaziantep FK have won 3, Kayserispor have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2026: Gaziantep FK 3-0 Kayserispor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 50%, Kayserispor 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Gaziantep FK and 64% for Kayserispor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 36% of games; Kayserispor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Gaziantep FK's games and 61% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Gaziantep FK's matches and 64% of Kayserispor's.
Do Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 79% of Kayserispor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, as Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.50 xG and Kayserispor 1.22 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.81 / defence 1.14 against Kayserispor attack 0.90 / defence 1.24, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 41% | Draw 30% | Kayserispor 29%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 60%, Kayserispor 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Kayserispor's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kayserispor arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.