Gaziantep FK 2-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gaziantep FK host Alanyaspor at Gaziantep Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 22 December 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gaziantep FK — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 0L across 8 games at Gaziantep Stadyumu this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gaziantep Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at Gaziantep Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's away record: 4W 2D 3L from 9 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.56 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Gaziantep FK) versus 1.40 (Alanyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Gaziantep FK trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Alanyaspor trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 47% versus Alanyaspor 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 47% | Alanyaspor 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 2.04 xG and Alanyaspor 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 1.299 / defence 1.042 | Alanyaspor attack 1.058 / defence 1.325. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.177. Gaziantep FK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Alanyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.325 — this is suppressing Gaziantep FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Gaziantep FK games / 17 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 54% | Draw 23% | Alanyaspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Alanyaspor 4.35. Gaziantep FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gaziantep FK are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Gaziantep FK 50% | Alanyaspor 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 54% | Draw 23% | Alanyaspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Gaziantep FK 2.04 / Alanyaspor 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 1.299 / def 1.042 | Alanyaspor attack 1.058 / def 1.325 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Alanyaspor xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Gaziantep FK 2 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 54% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gaziantep FK's attack at 1.30x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
54%
1.87
23%
4.32
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
3.33
1.30
Alanyaspor xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
13%
7.65
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
3%
32.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.30 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gaziantep FK's recent record stands at 6W 4D 7L from 17 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 8W 3D 6L across 17 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gaziantep FK on 1.29 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gaziantep FK have managed 6W 2D 0L from 8 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Gaziantep FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 3W 2D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.59 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 6W 4D 7L in their last 17 games (1.29 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 8W 3D 6L in their last 17 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Alanyaspor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 2.50 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2022, when Alanyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gaziantep FK
2
Draws
6
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 2, Alanyaspor have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gaziantep FK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 50%, Alanyaspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Gaziantep FK) and 50% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 50% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 50% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gaziantep FK edge out Alanyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Alanyaspor 2-1 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 2.04 xG and Alanyaspor 1.30 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 1.30 / defence 1.04 against Alanyaspor attack 1.06 / defence 1.32, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 54% | Draw 23% | Alanyaspor 23%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 47%, Alanyaspor 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.29 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gaziantep FK win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.