Gaziantep FK 0-3 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gaziantep FK host Alanyaspor at Kalyon Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 31). Kick-off is Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Gaziantep FK — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gaziantep FK's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Alanyaspor stand at 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Alanyaspor's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Alanyaspor's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Gaziantep FK's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Gaziantep FK's games and 70% of Alanyaspor's (from Gaziantep FK's last 10 home games and Alanyaspor's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Gaziantep FK have won 1, Alanyaspor 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Gaziantep FK 3–0 Alanyaspor — a Gaziantep FK win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Gaziantep FK trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Alanyaspor trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 46% versus Alanyaspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 57% | Alanyaspor 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.14 xG and Alanyaspor 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.782 / defence 1.048 | Alanyaspor attack 1.009 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.181. Gaziantep FK's attack rating of 0.782 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.14. Data: built from Gaziantep FK's last 65 games and Alanyaspor's last 66.
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 32% | Draw 32% | Alanyaspor 37%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 3.17 | Draw 3.16 | Alanyaspor 2.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gaziantep FK 60% (last 10 home games) | Alanyaspor 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 31 | Venue: Kalyon Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 32% | Draw 32% | Alanyaspor 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Gaziantep FK 1.14 / Alanyaspor 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.782 / def 1.048 | Alanyaspor attack 1.009 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Alanyaspor xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor FAQs
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Gaziantep FK 0 - 3 Alanyaspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 31) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 32% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gaziantep FK's attack at 0.78x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gaziantep FK's last 65 games and Alanyaspor's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
32%
3.17
32%
3.16
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.39
1.25
Alanyaspor xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
9%
11.05
12%
8.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.25 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gaziantep FK's recent record stands at 14W 14D 37L from 65 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 19W 20D 26L across 65 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gaziantep FK on 0.86 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gaziantep FK have managed 7W 9D 16L from their last 32 home games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 5W 10D 17L across their last 32 away games, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.35 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Current Season
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Gaziantep FK (Home) vs Alanyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gaziantep FK
Current Season
Alanyaspor
Current Season
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 14W 14D 37L in their last 65 games (0.86 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 19W 20D 26L in their last 65 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Alanyaspor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 0.94 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 May 2022, when Alanyaspor won Alanyaspor 3-0 Gaziantep FK.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Gaziantep FK
3
Draws
6
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gaziantep FK have won 1, Alanyaspor have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Gaziantep FK 1-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 50%, Alanyaspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Gaziantep FK) and 62% (Alanyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 34% of games; Alanyaspor in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 56% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Gaziantep FK's matches and 62% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 71% of Alanyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Alanyaspor run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Gaziantep FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Gaziantep FK 0-3 at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.14 xG and Alanyaspor 1.25 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Gaziantep FK fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Alanyaspor outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.78 / defence 1.05 against Alanyaspor attack 1.01 / defence 0.95, drawn from 65/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 32% | Draw 32% | Alanyaspor 37%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 57%, Alanyaspor 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 0.86 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.